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Predictions › United Kingdom › Aston Villa vs Brentford
Premier LeagueSat 10 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction

Villa Park

Aston VillaHome
1.50 : 1.42
expected goals
BrentfordAway
39%Aston Villa
26%Draw
35%Brentford
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Brentford is Aston Villa to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction
Aston Villa to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Aston Villa 1.5, Brentford 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 3/102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
12% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Aston Villa 39%, the draw 26% and Brentford 35%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Brentford the favourite at 6/4, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Aston Villa took 10 points from their last 5 games and Brentford took 9 from 5. Aston Villa come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Aston Villa won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Brentford won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Aston Villa score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Brentford score 1.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Aston Villa games and 13 of Brentford games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Aston Villa won 0 and Brentford won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Aston Villa 0, Brentford 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aston Villarecent form+3%
  • Brentfordrecent form+3%
Aston Villa form W W L W DBrentford form W W D D DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Aston Villa vs Brentford: Aston Villa shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Aston Villa host Brentford in the Premier League on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 at Villa Park. Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Brentford is Aston Villa to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Aston Villa form

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Brentford form

Brentford have 6 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Aston Villa won 0, Brentford won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Aston Villa 0, Brentford 1.

Our call

We expect Aston Villa to score about 1.5 goals and Brentford about 1.4. That points to Aston Villa to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Aston VillaBrentford
Games played2020
Wins116
Draws311
Losses63
Goals scored4035
Goals conceded2625
Scored per game2.01.8
Conceded per game1.31.3
Home record5W 0D 3L3W 5D 1L
Away record6W 3D 3L3W 6D 2L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored55%60%
Over 2.5 goals70%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Aston Villa to win36%7/48/5-5.9%
A Draw25%3/15/2-11.3%
Brentford to win33%2/16/4-14.7%
Over 2.5 goals53%10/114/6-12.6%
Under 2.5 goals41%6/411/10-12.7%
Aston Villa +0.560%4/61/2-10.8%
Brentford -0.535%9/511/8-17.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1/4
Over 2.5 goals56%4/5
Over 3.5 goals33%2/1
Both teams to score60%4/6
Aston Villa or Draw65%8/15
Brentford or Draw61%8/13
Aston Villa to win and Over 2.525%3/1
Brentford to win and Over 2.523%10/3
Aston Villa clean sheet24%3/1
Brentford clean sheet22%7/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
2-18.6%
1-28.2%
1-07.4%
0-17.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Arsenal and Liverpool Lead Chase for Brentford Star Kevin Schade

Arsenal and Liverpool are tracking Brentford's Kevin Schade, while top clubs prepare bids for Alessandro Bastoni and Marcos Llorente.

26 Sept 2026
Premier League

Big Matches Head Saturday Lineup Before International Break

European leagues prepare for a packed Saturday of matches as Tottenham, Aston Villa, and other top clubs seek big wins before the international break.

19 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Brentford is Aston Villa to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Aston Villa vs Brentford?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Aston Villa to score 1.5 goals and Brentford 1.4.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Aston Villa last 20 games and 12 of Brentford last 20.

How are Aston Villa playing?

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Brentford playing?

Brentford have 6 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Aston Villa and Brentford last met?

It ended Aston Villa 0, Brentford 1. In the last 2 meetings Aston Villa won 0 and Brentford won 1.

What is the best bet for Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Aston Villa against Brentford. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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