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Predictions › United Kingdom › Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Premier LeagueSat 24 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction

Villa Park

Aston VillaHome
1.13 : 1.98
expected goals
Manchester CityAway
21%Aston Villa
23%Draw
56%Man City
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Manchester City is Manchester City to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Manchester City to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Aston Villa 1.1, Manchester City 2.0
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Manchester City to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 6/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Aston Villa 21%, the draw 23% and Manchester City 56%. The bookmakers agree and make Manchester City the favourite at 4/6.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Aston Villa took 10 points from their last 5 games and Manchester City took 15 from 5. Manchester City come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Aston Villa won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Manchester City won 8 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Aston Villa score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Manchester City score 2.5 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Aston Villa games and 13 of Manchester City games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Aston Villa won 2 and Manchester City won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Manchester City 1, Aston Villa 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aston Villarecent form+3%
  • Man Cityrecent form+6%
  • Man Cityrest between games-2%
Aston Villa form D W W L WMan City form D W W W WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Aston Villa vs Manchester City: Manchester City are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Aston Villa host Manchester City in the Premier League on Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 at Villa Park. Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Manchester City is Manchester City to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Aston Villa form

Aston Villa have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Manchester City form

Manchester City have 17 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Aston Villa won 2, Manchester City won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Manchester City 1, Aston Villa 2.

Our call

We expect Aston Villa to score about 1.1 goals and Manchester City about 2.0. That points to Manchester City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Manchester City to win and Over 2.5 at 6/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Aston VillaMan City
Games played2020
Wins1017
Draws42
Losses61
Goals scored4049
Goals conceded2813
Scored per game2.02.5
Conceded per game1.40.7
Home record4W 1D 3L9W 0D 1L
Away record6W 3D 3L8W 2D 0L
Clean sheets20%60%
Both teams scored60%40%
Over 2.5 goals75%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Aston Villa to win20%4/17/2-9.3%
A Draw22%7/23/1-11.7%
Manchester City to win53%10/114/6-13.4%
Over 3.5 goals40%6/45/4-8.7%
Under 3.5 goals56%4/54/7-12.0%
Aston Villa +0.542%11/811/10-8.7%
Manchester City -0.553%10/114/7-16.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%2/9
Over 2.5 goals60%4/6
Over 3.5 goals38%13/8
Both teams to score59%4/6
Aston Villa or Draw44%5/4
Manchester City or Draw79%1/4
Aston Villa to win and Over 2.513%13/2
Manchester City to win and Over 2.539%6/4
Aston Villa clean sheet14%6/1
Manchester City clean sheet32%85/40

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%
1-29.9%
0-28.7%
0-18.2%
1-36.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Arrests and Police Officer Injured After Liverpool and Man City Match

Merseyside Police arrested ten people and an officer suffered a serious facial injury following Sunday match at Anfield.

12 Oct 2026
Premier League

Man City silence Anfield hostility with 3-0 win over Liverpool

Manchester City secured a 3-0 victory at Liverpool despite facing intense hostility from home fans over financial rules.

12 Oct 2026
Premier League

Szoboszlai Ruled Out as Liverpool Prepare for Manchester City Clash

Dominik Szoboszlai will miss Liverpool's match against Manchester City with a hamstring injury alongside several other key players.

11 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Manchester City is Manchester City to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Aston Villa to score 1.1 goals and Manchester City 2.0.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Aston Villa last 20 games and 8 of Manchester City last 20.

How are Aston Villa playing?

Aston Villa have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Manchester City playing?

Manchester City have 17 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Aston Villa and Manchester City last met?

It ended Manchester City 1, Aston Villa 2. In the last 2 meetings Aston Villa won 2 and Manchester City won 0.

What is the best bet for Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Aston Villa against Man City. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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