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Predictions › Italy › Atalanta vs Parma
Serie AMon 2 Nov, 19:45 Italy time

Atalanta vs Parma prediction

New Balance Arena

AtalantaHome
1.36 : 0.59
expected goals
ParmaAway
55%Atalanta
30%Draw
16%Parma
Eagle safe pickAtalanta or Draw
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Parma is Atalanta to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atalanta or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction
Atalanta to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Atalanta 1.4, Parma 0.6
Best bet
Atalanta or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score
34%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atalanta or Draw
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
19% chanceFair price 5.381 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atalanta 55%, the draw 30% and Parma 16%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atalanta took 6 points from their last 5 games and Parma took 4 from 5. Atalanta come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atalanta won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Parma won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atalanta score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Parma score 0.7 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Atalanta games and 6 of Parma games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Atalanta won 1 and Parma won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atalanta 4, Parma 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Atalanta or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Parmarecent form-1%
  • Atalantarest between games-5%
Atalanta form D L W W LParma form D L W L DHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atalanta vs Parma: Atalanta are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atalanta host Parma in the Serie A on Mon 2 Nov, 19:45 at New Balance Arena. Our prediction for Atalanta vs Parma is Atalanta to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atalanta or Draw at 1.19.

Atalanta form

Atalanta have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Parma form

Parma have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Atalanta won 1, Parma won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atalanta 4, Parma 0.

Our call

We expect Atalanta to score about 1.4 goals and Parma about 0.6. That points to Atalanta to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atalanta or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 5.38.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtalantaParma
Games played2020
Wins75
Draws45
Losses910
Goals scored2614
Goals conceded2828
Scored per game1.30.7
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record5W 1D 3L3W 3D 4L
Away record2W 3D 6L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored60%40%
Over 2.5 goals50%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals59%1.70
Over 2.5 goals31%3.22
Over 3.5 goals13%7.43
Both teams to score34%2.94
Atalanta or Draw84%1.18
Parma or Draw45%2.22
Atalanta to win and Over 2.523%4.31
Parma to win and Over 2.55%18.68
Atalanta clean sheet55%1.81
Parma clean sheet26%3.89

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-018.6%
0-014.9%
2-013.1%
1-112.1%
2-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Serie A

Parma Dismiss Manager Carlos Cuesta After Slow Start to Serie A Season

Parma have parted ways with head coach Carlos Cuesta after winning just one of their opening five league matches this season.

27 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Parma is Atalanta to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atalanta or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Atalanta vs Parma?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 2-0. We expect Atalanta to score 1.4 goals and Parma 0.6.

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Parma?

Both teams to score has a 34% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Atalanta last 20 games and 8 of Parma last 20.

How are Atalanta playing?

Atalanta have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Parma playing?

Parma have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Atalanta and Parma last met?

It ended Atalanta 4, Parma 0. In the last 1 meeting Atalanta won 1 and Parma won 0.

What is the best bet for Atalanta vs Parma?

Atalanta or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atalanta against Parma. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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