Predictions › Champions League › Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich

Champions LeagueTue 3 Nov, 20:00 UTC

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction

Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Atlético MadridHome

1.63 : 1.95

expected goals

Bayern MunichAway

32%Atlético

23%Draw

45%Bayern

Eagle safe pickBoth teams to score

1.42

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich is Bayern Munich to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.42.

Prediction: Bayern Munich to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Atlético Madrid 1.6, Bayern Munich 1.9
Best bet: Both teams to score at 1.42
Both teams to score: 70%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Both teams to score

70% chanceFair price 1.421 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Madrid to win

31% chancePrice 3.201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Atlético Madrid 32%, the draw 23% and Bayern Munich 45%. The bookmakers agree and make Bayern Munich the favourite at 1.95.
2
Recent form
Atlético Madrid took 13 points from their last 5 games and Bayern Munich took 9 from 5. Atlético Madrid come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Atlético Madrid won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Bayern Munich won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Atlético Madrid score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.0. Bayern Munich score 3.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Atlético Madrid games and 17 of Bayern Munich games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Both teams to score has a 70% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Atléticorecent form+4%
Bayernrecent form+3%
Atléticorest between games-5%

Atlético form D D W W WBayern form D W D D WHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Bayern Munich shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Madrid host Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Tue 3 Nov, 20:00 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich is Bayern Munich to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.42.

Atlético Madrid form

Atlético Madrid have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Bayern Munich form

Bayern Munich have 13 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 68 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Atlético Madrid to score about 1.6 goals and Bayern Munich about 1.9. That points to Bayern Munich to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Both teams to score at 1.42. Our bold bet is Atlético Madrid to win at 3.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Atlético	Bayern
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	13
Draws	3	6
Losses	5	1
Goals scored	31	68
Goals conceded	20	31
Scored per game	1.6	3.4
Conceded per game	1.0	1.6
Home record	6W 2D 1L	7W 3D 0L
Away record	6W 1D 4L	6W 3D 1L
Clean sheets	40%	25%
Both teams scored	45%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	85%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Atlético Madrid to win	31%	3.21	3.20	-0.4%
A Draw	22%	4.50	4.10	-8.9%
Bayern Munich to win	43%	2.30	1.95	-15.1%
Over 3.5 goals	46%	2.18	1.91	-12.3%
Under 3.5 goals	48%	2.08	1.80	-13.3%
Atlético Madrid +0.5	49%	2.05	1.77	-13.7%
Bayern Munich -0.5	45%	2.21	1.87	-15.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	88%	1.14
Over 2.5 goals	69%	1.44
Over 3.5 goals	48%	2.08
Both teams to score	70%	1.44
Atlético Madrid or Draw	55%	1.82
Bayern Munich or Draw	68%	1.48
Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.08
Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.88
Atlético Madrid clean sheet	14%	7.00
Bayern Munich clean sheet	20%	5.12

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.4%

1-28.6%

2-17.2%

2-27.0%

1-35.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

LaLiga

Julian Alvarez Apologizes to Atletico Madrid Fans After Winner

Julian Alvarez said sorry to Atletico Madrid fans for trying to join Barcelona after scoring the winner against Deportivo.

44 min ago

Premier League

Top European clubs show interest in Brighton defender Luka Vuskovic

Big teams across Europe are chasing Brighton defender Luka Vuskovic while several other top players attract transfer attention.

15 hours ago

Champions League

Rice Supports Kane For Ballon d'Or Glory

Declan Rice says England teammate Harry Kane deserves to win the Ballon d'Or on Monday after another brilliant year.

22 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich is Bayern Munich to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.42.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Atlético Madrid to score 1.6 goals and Bayern Munich 1.9.

Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

Both teams to score has a 70% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Atlético Madrid last 20 games and 15 of Bayern Munich last 20.

How are Atlético Madrid playing?

How are Bayern Munich playing?

What is the best bet for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

Both teams to score at 1.42, with a 70% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlético against Bayern. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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