Predictions › Champions League › Bayern Munich vs Arsenal

Champions LeagueWed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction

Allianz Arena

Bayern MunichHome

2.43 : 1.38

expected goals

ArsenalAway

60%Bayern

20%Draw

20%Arsenal

Eagle safe pickBayern Munich or Draw

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal is Bayern Munich to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction: Bayern Munich to win
Chance: 60%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Bayern Munich 2.4, Arsenal 1.4
Best bet: Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score: 69%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bayern Munich or Draw

78% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bayern Munich to win and both score

37% chanceFair price 2.731 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Bayern Munich 60%, the draw 20% and Arsenal 20%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Bayern Munich took 11 points from their last 5 games and Arsenal took 12 from 5. Arsenal come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Bayern Munich won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Arsenal won 7 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Bayern Munich score 3.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Arsenal score 1.4 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Bayern Munich games and 9 of Arsenal games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Bayern Munich won 0 and Arsenal won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Arsenal 3, Bayern Munich 1.
6
The safest bet
Bayern Munich or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bayernrecent form+4%
Arsenalrecent form+3%
Bayernrest between games-2%
Arsenalrest between games-2%
Arsenalteam news-3%

Bayern form D W W W DArsenal form D L W W WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: Bayern Munich are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bayern Munich host Arsenal in the Champions League on Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 at Allianz Arena. Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal is Bayern Munich to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.29.

Bayern Munich form

Bayern Munich have 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 66 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Arsenal form

Arsenal have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Bayern Munich won 0, Arsenal won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Arsenal 3, Bayern Munich 1.

Our call

We expect Bayern Munich to score about 2.4 goals and Arsenal about 1.4. That points to Bayern Munich to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is Bayern Munich to win and both score at 2.73.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bayern	Arsenal
Games played	20	20
Wins	14	14
Draws	5	3
Losses	1	3
Goals scored	66	29
Goals conceded	27	14
Scored per game	3.3	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	0.7
Home record	8W 2D 0L	7W 1D 1L
Away record	6W 3D 1L	7W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	30%	55%
Both teams scored	70%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	90%	1.11
Over 2.5 goals	73%	1.36
Over 3.5 goals	53%	1.89
Both teams to score	69%	1.46
Bayern Munich or Draw	80%	1.25
Arsenal or Draw	40%	2.51
Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5	49%	2.05
Arsenal to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.46
Bayern Munich clean sheet	25%	3.97
Arsenal clean sheet	9%	11.37

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.0%

1-17.9%

3-17.3%

2-06.5%

2-26.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Arteta Responds to Double Injury Blow Following Leeds Victory

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta defended his training methods after Piero Hincapie and Martin Zubimendi picked up ankle injuries after beating Leeds.

14 hours ago

Premier League

Riccardo Calafiori Makes Boot History in Arsenal Win

Riccardo Calafiori scored in special David Beckham boots as Arsenal came from behind to defeat Leeds United at Emirates Stadium.

10 Oct 2026

Premier League

Arsenal Fight Back Against Leeds Amid Manchester City Uncertainty

Bruno Guimaraes came off the bench to score the winner as Arsenal rallied for a 2-1 victory over Leeds United at the Emirates.

10 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?

Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal is Bayern Munich to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 3-1. We expect Bayern Munich to score 2.4 goals and Arsenal 1.4.

Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score has a 69% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Bayern Munich last 20 games and 8 of Arsenal last 20.

How are Bayern Munich playing?

How are Arsenal playing?

What happened when Bayern Munich and Arsenal last met?

It ended Arsenal 3, Bayern Munich 1. In the last 1 meeting Bayern Munich won 0 and Arsenal won 1.

What is the best bet for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?

Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bayern against Arsenal. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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