Predictions › Germany › Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig

BundesligaSat 17 Oct, 16:30 Germany time

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig prediction

Allianz Arena

Bayern MunichHome

3.56 : 1.11

expected goals

RB LeipzigAway

82%Bayern

11%Draw

7%RB Leipzig

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig is Bayern Munich to win, with a 82% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction: Bayern Munich to win
Chance: 82%
Most likely score: 3-1
Expected goals: Bayern Munich 3.6, RB Leipzig 1.1
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score: 65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.222 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 3-1

8% chanceFair price 12.761 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Bayern Munich 82%, the draw 11% and RB Leipzig 7%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Bayern Munich took 13 points from their last 5 games and RB Leipzig took 6 from 5. Bayern Munich come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Bayern Munich won 8 of their last 10 games at home. RB Leipzig won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Bayern Munich score 3.5 goals a game and let in 1.3. RB Leipzig score 1.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Bayern Munich games and 17 of RB Leipzig games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Bayern Munich won 1 and RB Leipzig won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended RB Leipzig 1, Bayern Munich 5.
6
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bayernrecent form+6%
RB Leipzigrecent form-1%

Bayern form W W W D WRB Leipzig form L W L L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: Bayern Munich are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 at Allianz Arena. Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig is Bayern Munich to win, with a 82% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.22.

Bayern Munich form

Bayern Munich have 15 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 70 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

RB Leipzig form

RB Leipzig have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Bayern Munich won 1, RB Leipzig won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished RB Leipzig 1, Bayern Munich 5.

Our call

We expect Bayern Munich to score about 3.6 goals and RB Leipzig about 1.1. That points to Bayern Munich to win, with 3-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Correct score 3-1 at 12.76.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bayern	RB Leipzig
Games played	20	20
Wins	15	11
Draws	4	2
Losses	1	7
Goals scored	70	39
Goals conceded	26	31
Scored per game	3.5	1.9
Conceded per game	1.3	1.6
Home record	8W 2D 0L	7W 2D 1L
Away record	7W 2D 1L	4W 0D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	85%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	95%	1.05
Over 2.5 goals	84%	1.18
Over 3.5 goals	68%	1.46
Both teams to score	65%	1.53
Bayern Munich or Draw	93%	1.08
RB Leipzig or Draw	18%	5.52
Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5	73%	1.37
RB Leipzig to win and Over 2.5	6%	16.99
Bayern Munich clean sheet	33%	3.03
RB Leipzig clean sheet	3%	35.05

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

3-17.8%

3-07.1%

4-17.0%

2-16.6%

4-06.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

LaLiga

Bayern Face Olise Contract Battle While Chelsea Lead Race For Scott

Bayern Munich face tough contract talks with Michael Olise, while Chelsea lead the race for Bournemouth midfielder Alex Scott.

5 Oct 2026

Bundesliga

Big Clubs Battle for Juventus Winger Kenan Yildiz

Arsenal, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich are all chasing Juventus winger Kenan Yildiz as transfer rumors heat up across Europe.

4 Oct 2026

LaLiga

Bayern Target Dani Olmo as Chelsea and Man United Eye January Transfers

Bayern Munich are tracking Barcelona midfielder Dani Olmo, while Manchester United and Chelsea target defensive and midfield reinforcements.

25 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?

Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig is Bayern Munich to win, with a 82% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?

3-1 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 4-1. We expect Bayern Munich to score 3.6 goals and RB Leipzig 1.1.

Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Bayern Munich last 20 games and 14 of RB Leipzig last 20.

How are Bayern Munich playing?

How are RB Leipzig playing?

What happened when Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig last met?

It ended RB Leipzig 1, Bayern Munich 5. In the last 1 meeting Bayern Munich won 1 and RB Leipzig won 0.

What is the best bet for Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bayern against RB Leipzig. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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