Predictions › Portugal › Benfica vs Alverca

Primeira LigaMon 2 Nov, 20:15 Portugal time

Benfica vs Alverca prediction

Estádio da Luz

BenficaHome

2.20 : 1.04

expected goals

AlvercaAway

63%Benfica

21%Draw

16%Alverca

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Benfica vs Alverca is Benfica to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Benfica to win
Chance: 63%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Benfica 2.2, Alverca 1.0
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Benfica to win and Over 2.5

45% chanceFair price 2.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Benfica 63%, the draw 21% and Alverca 16%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Benfica took 12 points from their last 5 games and Alverca took 10 from 5. Benfica come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Benfica won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Alverca won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Benfica score 2.8 goals a game and let in 0.9. Alverca score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Benfica games and 10 of Alverca games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Benfica won 1 and Alverca won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Benfica 2, Alverca 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Benficarecent form+3%
Alvercarecent form+3%
Benficarest between games-5%

Benfica form D W W L WAlverca form D W W W LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Benfica vs Alverca: Benfica are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Benfica host Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Mon 2 Nov, 20:15 at Estádio da Luz. Our prediction for Benfica vs Alverca is Benfica to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Benfica form

Benfica have 15 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 55 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Alverca form

Alverca have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Benfica won 1, Alverca won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Benfica 2, Alverca 1.

Our call

We expect Benfica to score about 2.2 goals and Alverca about 1.0. That points to Benfica to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Benfica to win and Over 2.5 at 2.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Benfica	Alverca
Games played	20	20
Wins	15	6
Draws	4	7
Losses	1	7
Goals scored	55	26
Goals conceded	18	27
Scored per game	2.8	1.3
Conceded per game	0.9	1.4
Home record	7W 2D 0L	3W 5D 2L
Away record	8W 2D 1L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	35%	10%
Both teams scored	65%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	63%	1.60
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.47
Both teams to score	58%	1.73
Benfica or Draw	84%	1.19
Alverca or Draw	37%	2.71
Benfica to win and Over 2.5	46%	2.20
Alverca to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.46
Benfica clean sheet	35%	2.82
Alverca clean sheet	11%	8.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.9%

1-19.5%

2-09.5%

1-08.1%

3-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Chelsea and Man United Track Benfica Star Tomás Araújo

Chelsea and Manchester United are tracking Benfica's Tomás Araújo, while free agent Jadon Sancho is prepared to wait until January to find a new club.

2 Oct 2026

Europa League

Ruben Amorim Promises Tactical Changes After AC Milan Defeat

AC Milan boss Ruben Amorim says he is ready to adapt his tactics after a 2-0 home loss to Benfica extended his side's winless run to three games.

17 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?

Our prediction for Benfica vs Alverca is Benfica to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Benfica vs Alverca?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Benfica to score 2.2 goals and Alverca 1.0.

Will both teams score in Benfica vs Alverca?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Benfica last 20 games and 14 of Alverca last 20.

How are Benfica playing?

How are Alverca playing?

What happened when Benfica and Alverca last met?

It ended Benfica 2, Alverca 1. In the last 1 meeting Benfica won 1 and Alverca won 0.

What is the best bet for Benfica vs Alverca?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Benfica against Alverca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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