Predictions › Europa League › Benfica vs Lech Poznan

Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 20:00 UTC

Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction

Estádio da Luz

BenficaHome

2.67 : 0.88

expected goals

Lech PoznanAway

75%Benfica

16%Draw

10%Lech Poznan

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

1.44

Quick answer

Our prediction for Benfica vs Lech Poznan is Benfica to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.44.

Prediction: Benfica to win
Chance: 75%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Benfica 2.7, Lech Poznan 0.9
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.44
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

69% chanceFair price 1.441 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Benfica to win and both score

36% chanceFair price 2.781 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Benfica 75%, the draw 16% and Lech Poznan 10%. The bookmakers agree and make Benfica the favourite at 1.21.
2
Recent form
Benfica took 12 points from their last 5 games and Lech Poznan took 4 from 5. Benfica come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Benfica won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Lech Poznan won 3 of their last 6 on the road.
4
Goals
Benfica score 2.8 goals a game and let in 0.9. Lech Poznan score 1.5 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Benfica games and 8 of Lech Poznan games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 69% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Benficarecent form+3%
Lech Poznanrecent form-1%
Benficarest between games-5%

Benfica form D W W W LLech Poznan form D L L D WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Benfica vs Lech Poznan: Benfica are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Benfica host Lech Poznan in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 at Estádio da Luz. Our prediction for Benfica vs Lech Poznan is Benfica to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.44.

Benfica form

Benfica have 15 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 55 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Lech Poznan form

Lech Poznan have 6 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 13 games, with 19 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Benfica to score about 2.7 goals and Lech Poznan about 0.9. That points to Benfica to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.44. Our bold bet is Benfica to win and both score at 2.78.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Benfica	Lech Poznan
Games played	20	13
Wins	15	6
Draws	4	2
Losses	1	5
Goals scored	55	19
Goals conceded	18	21
Scored per game	2.8	1.5
Conceded per game	0.9	1.6
Home record	7W 2D 0L	3W 2D 2L
Away record	8W 2D 1L	3W 0D 3L
Clean sheets	35%	23%
Both teams scored	65%	62%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	62%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Benfica to win	76%	1.32	1.21	-8.1%
A Draw	16%	6.42	6.50	+1.3%
Lech Poznan to win	9%	11.56	11.00	-4.9%
Over 3.5 goals	47%	2.14	1.83	-14.2%
Under 3.5 goals	47%	2.11	1.87	-11.4%
Benfica -2.5	40%	2.47	2.05	-17.1%
Lech Poznan +2.5	53%	1.87	1.61	-14.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	87%	1.14
Over 2.5 goals	69%	1.45
Over 3.5 goals	47%	2.11
Both teams to score	55%	1.82
Benfica or Draw	90%	1.11
Lech Poznan or Draw	25%	3.98
Benfica to win and Over 2.5	57%	1.74
Lech Poznan to win and Over 2.5	6%	15.94
Benfica clean sheet	41%	2.41
Lech Poznan clean sheet	7%	14.47

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.2%

3-09.1%

2-19.0%

3-18.0%

1-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Chelsea and Man United Track Benfica Star Tomás Araújo

Chelsea and Manchester United are tracking Benfica's Tomás Araújo, while free agent Jadon Sancho is prepared to wait until January to find a new club.

2 Oct 2026

Europa League

Ruben Amorim Promises Tactical Changes After AC Milan Defeat

AC Milan boss Ruben Amorim says he is ready to adapt his tactics after a 2-0 home loss to Benfica extended his side's winless run to three games.

17 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznan?

Our prediction for Benfica vs Lech Poznan is Benfica to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.44.

What is the score prediction for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect Benfica to score 2.7 goals and Lech Poznan 0.9.

Will both teams score in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Benfica last 20 games and 8 of Lech Poznan last 13.

How are Benfica playing?

How are Lech Poznan playing?

What is the best bet for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.44, with a 69% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Benfica against Lech Poznan. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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