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Predictions › United States › Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
MLBWed 30 Sept, 20:00 United States time

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees prediction

Yankee Stadium

Boston Red SoxAway
3.7 : 4.1
projected runs
New York YankeesHome
49%Red Sox
51%Yankees
Eagle safe pickOver 5.5 runs
-251

Quick answer

Our prediction for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees is New York Yankees to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Boston Red Sox 3.7 and New York Yankees 4.1. Our best bet is Over 5.5 runs at -251.

Prediction
New York Yankees to win
Chance
51%
Projected score
Boston Red Sox 4, New York Yankees 4
Projected total
7.8 runs
Best bet
Over 5.5 runs at -251

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 5.5 runs
72% chanceFair price -2511 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Red Sox to win
42% chanceFair price +1361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives New York Yankees 51% and Boston Red Sox 49%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    New York Yankees won 3 of their last 5 and Boston Red Sox won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    New York Yankees won 9 of their last 12 games at home. Boston Red Sox won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    New York Yankees score 5.0 runs a game and let in 3.9. Boston Red Sox score 2.8 and let in 2.8. Their recent games average 8.9 and 5.5 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, New York Yankees won 3 and Boston Red Sox won 2. The last one ended New York Yankees 16, Boston Red Sox 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 5.5 runs has a 72% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Yankeesrest between games-2%
  • Red Soxrest between games-5%
  • Yankeesteam news-3%
  • Red Soxteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees: New York Yankees shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New York Yankees host Boston Red Sox in the MLB on Wed 30 Sept, 20:00 at Yankee Stadium. Our prediction for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees is New York Yankees to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Boston Red Sox 3.7 and New York Yankees 4.1. Our best bet is Over 5.5 runs at -251.

New York Yankees form

New York Yankees have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 101 runs scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Boston Red Sox form

Boston Red Sox have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 55 runs scored and 56 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. New York Yankees won 3, Boston Red Sox won 2. Last time out it finished New York Yankees 16, Boston Red Sox 1.

Our call

We expect Boston Red Sox to score about 3.7 runs and New York Yankees about 4.1. That points to New York Yankees to win. Our safest bet is Over 5.5 runs at -251. Our bold bet is Red Sox to win at +136.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

YankeesRed Sox
Games played2020
Wins1310
Losses710
Runs scored10155
Runs conceded7756
Scored per game5.02.8
Conceded per game3.92.8
Home record9W 3L6W 6L
Away record4W 4L4W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Yankees spreadCoversFair
Yankees -2.531%+221
Yankees -1.540%+150
Yankees -0.549%+102
Yankees +0.559%-143
Yankees +1.568%-210
Total runsOverUnder
5.570%30%
6.561%39%
7.552%48%
8.543%57%
9.535%65%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Yankees +3.5 wins if Yankees win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Yankees Regular Season Ends Early in Rainout Ahead of Boston Series

The regular season finale between the Yankees and Orioles was canceled due to rain, as New York prepares for a wild card matchup with Boston.

14 hours ago
MLB

Yankees Face Major Roster Decisions Ahead of Red Sox Series

The New York Yankees are preparing for their wild card series against the Red Sox with several major injury and roster questions still unanswered.

26 Sept 2026
MLB

Ben Rice Beats Aaron Boone's Preseason Prediction with 41st Home Run

Ben Rice hit two home runs in a win over the Rays, reaching 41 on the year and surpassing manager Aaron Boone's spring training prediction.

24 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees?

Our prediction for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees is New York Yankees to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Boston Red Sox 3.7 and New York Yankees 4.1. Our best bet is Over 5.5 runs at -251.

What is the projected score for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees?

We project Boston Red Sox 3.7 and New York Yankees 4.1, about 7.8 runs in total.

How are New York Yankees playing?

New York Yankees have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 101 runs scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Boston Red Sox playing?

Boston Red Sox have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 55 runs scored and 56 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox last met?

It ended New York Yankees 16, Boston Red Sox 1. In the last 5 meetings New York Yankees won 3 and Boston Red Sox won 2.

What is the best bet for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees?

Over 5.5 runs at -251, with a 72% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Yankees against Red Sox. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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