Predictions › United Kingdom › Brentford vs Liverpool

Premier LeagueSat 17 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Brentford vs Liverpool prediction

Gtech Community Stadium

BrentfordHome

1.47 : 1.39

expected goals

LiverpoolAway

39%Brentford

26%Draw

35%Liverpool

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Brentford vs Liverpool is Brentford to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Brentford to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Brentford 1.5, Liverpool 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Brentford to win

36% chancePrice 7/4+0.1% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Brentford 39%, the draw 26% and Liverpool 35%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Liverpool the favourite at 11/8, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Brentford took 9 points from their last 5 games and Liverpool took 13 from 5. Liverpool come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Brentford won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Liverpool won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Brentford score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Liverpool score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Brentford games and 11 of Liverpool games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Brentford won 1 and Liverpool won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Liverpool 1, Brentford 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Brentfordrecent form+3%
Liverpoolrecent form+6%
Liverpoolteam news-3%

Brentford form W W D D DLiverpool form W W D W WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Brentford vs Liverpool: Brentford shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Brentford host Liverpool in the Premier League on Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 at Gtech Community Stadium. Our prediction for Brentford vs Liverpool is Brentford to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Brentford form

Brentford have 6 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Brentford won 1, Liverpool won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Liverpool 1, Brentford 1.

Our call

We expect Brentford to score about 1.5 goals and Liverpool about 1.4. That points to Brentford to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Brentford to win at 7/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Brentford	Liverpool
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	8
Draws	11	6
Losses	3	6
Goals scored	35	31
Goals conceded	25	28
Scored per game	1.8	1.6
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	3W 5D 1L	5W 5D 1L
Away record	3W 6D 2L	3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Brentford to win	36%	7/4	7/4	+0.1%
A Draw	26%	11/4	5/2	-7.3%
Liverpool to win	34%	2/1	11/8	-20.8%
Over 3.5 goals	36%	9/5	5/4	-17.3%
Under 3.5 goals	60%	4/6	4/7	-6.3%
Brentford +0.5	57%	8/11	8/15	-11.6%
Liverpool -0.5	37%	7/4	6/5	-18.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	2/7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	5/6
Over 3.5 goals	32%	85/40
Both teams to score	58%	8/11
Brentford or Draw	65%	8/15
Liverpool or Draw	61%	8/13
Brentford to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Liverpool to win and Over 2.5	22%	7/2
Brentford clean sheet	25%	3/1
Liverpool clean sheet	23%	10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%

2-18.6%

1-28.1%

1-07.8%

0-17.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Liverpool Injury Crisis Deepens Ahead of Manchester City Clash

Liverpool face a defensive and attacking injury crisis ahead of their major clash with Manchester City.

6 Oct 2026

Premier League

Klopp Refuses to Speculate on Man City Ruling Ahead of Germany Clash

Jürgen Klopp is waiting to see how Manchester City's financial rules verdict plays out as he prepares Germany to face Serbia in the Nations League.

30 Sept 2026

Premier League

Real Madrid target Virgil van Dijk as contract talks stall

Real Madrid are tracking Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk as they look to secure the veteran on a free transfer.

30 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Brentford vs Liverpool?

Our prediction for Brentford vs Liverpool is Brentford to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Brentford vs Liverpool?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Brentford to score 1.5 goals and Liverpool 1.4.

Will both teams score in Brentford vs Liverpool?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Brentford last 20 games and 12 of Liverpool last 20.

How are Brentford playing?

How are Liverpool playing?

What happened when Brentford and Liverpool last met?

It ended Liverpool 1, Brentford 1. In the last 2 meetings Brentford won 1 and Liverpool won 0.

What is the best bet for Brentford vs Liverpool?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Brentford against Liverpool. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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