Predictions › United Kingdom › Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers

ChampionshipSun 22 Nov, 12:00 United Kingdom time

Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers prediction

Turf Moor

BurnleyHome

1.57 : 1.15

expected goals

Blackburn RoversAway

46%Burnley

27%Draw

27%Blackburn

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers is Burnley to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Burnley to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Burnley 1.6, Blackburn Rovers 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Blackburn Rovers to win

27% chancePrice 11/4+2.6% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Burnley 46%, the draw 27% and Blackburn Rovers 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Burnley the favourite at 5/6.
2
Recent form
Burnley took 2 points from their last 5 games and Blackburn Rovers took 6 from 5. Blackburn Rovers come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Burnley won 0 of their last 10 games at home. Blackburn Rovers won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Burnley score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.8. Blackburn Rovers score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Burnley games and 15 of Blackburn Rovers games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Burnleyrecent form-4%
Blackburnrecent form-1%

Burnley form L D D L LBlackburn form W L L W LHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers: Burnley are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Burnley host Blackburn Rovers in the Championship on Sun 22 Nov, 12:00 at Turf Moor. Our prediction for Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers is Burnley to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Burnley form

Burnley have 1 win, 11 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Blackburn Rovers form

Blackburn Rovers have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Burnley to score about 1.6 goals and Blackburn Rovers about 1.1. That points to Burnley to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Blackburn Rovers to win at 11/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Burnley	Blackburn
Games played	20	20
Wins	1	8
Draws	11	4
Losses	8	8
Goals scored	26	29
Goals conceded	36	29
Scored per game	1.3	1.4
Conceded per game	1.8	1.4
Home record	0W 8D 2L	5W 1D 5L
Away record	1W 3D 6L	3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	15%	15%
Both teams scored	80%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Burnley to win	44%	5/4	5/6	-18.1%
A Draw	26%	11/4	11/4	-4.0%
Blackburn Rovers to win	27%	11/4	11/4	+2.6%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	21/20	8/11	-15.5%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	5/4	Evens	-11.0%
Burnley -0.5	46%	6/5	4/5	-17.9%
Blackburn Rovers +0.5	47%	11/10	5/6	-12.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	3/10
Over 2.5 goals	51%	Evens
Over 3.5 goals	29%	5/2
Both teams to score	55%	5/6
Burnley or Draw	73%	4/11
Blackburn Rovers or Draw	54%	5/6
Burnley to win and Over 2.5	29%	5/2
Blackburn Rovers to win and Over 2.5	16%	11/2
Burnley clean sheet	32%	85/40
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet	21%	4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%

1-09.7%

2-19.3%

2-08.1%

0-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Championship

Jamie Vardy Scores in 20th Straight Season in Burnley Loss

Jamie Vardy marked his 20th consecutive season with a goal, but Burnley lost 2-1 against Wolves at Turf Moor on Friday.

17 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?

Our prediction for Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers is Burnley to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Burnley to score 1.6 goals and Blackburn Rovers 1.1.

Will both teams score in Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Burnley last 20 games and 15 of Blackburn Rovers last 20.

How are Burnley playing?

How are Blackburn Rovers playing?

What is the best bet for Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Burnley against Blackburn. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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