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Predictions › United States › California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs
College FootballSat 24 Oct, 12:00 United States time

California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs prediction

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

California Golden BearsAway
19.6 : 32.8
projected points
SMU MustangsHome
22%California
78%SMU
Eagle safe pickSMU to win
-360

Quick answer

Our prediction for California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs is SMU Mustangs to win, with a 78% chance. We project California Golden Bears 19.6 and SMU Mustangs 32.8. Our best bet is SMU to win at -360.

Prediction
SMU Mustangs to win
Chance
78%
Projected score
California Golden Bears 20, SMU Mustangs 33
Projected total
52.5 points
Best bet
SMU to win at -360

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

SMU to win
78% chanceFair price -3602 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives SMU Mustangs 78% and California Golden Bears 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    SMU Mustangs won 4 of their last 5 and California Golden Bears won 3 of their last 5. SMU Mustangs come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    SMU Mustangs won 8 of their last 8 games at home. California Golden Bears won 3 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    SMU Mustangs score 31.6 points a game and let in 20.1. California Golden Bears score 24.7 and let in 28.7. Their recent games average 51.6 and 53.4 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, SMU Mustangs won 0 and California Golden Bears won 1. The last one ended California Golden Bears 38, SMU Mustangs 35.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    SMU to win has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs: SMU Mustangs are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SMU Mustangs host California Golden Bears in the College Football on Sat 24 Oct, 12:00 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Our prediction for California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs is SMU Mustangs to win, with a 78% chance. We project California Golden Bears 19.6 and SMU Mustangs 32.8. Our best bet is SMU to win at -360.

SMU Mustangs form

SMU Mustangs have 12 wins and 4 losses in their last 16 games, with 505 points scored and 321 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

California Golden Bears form

California Golden Bears have 8 wins and 9 losses in their last 17 games, with 420 points scored and 488 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. SMU Mustangs won 0, California Golden Bears won 1. Last time out it finished California Golden Bears 38, SMU Mustangs 35.

Our call

We expect California Golden Bears to score about 19.6 points and SMU Mustangs about 32.8. That points to SMU Mustangs to win. Our safest bet is SMU to win at -360.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 17 games in all competitions.

SMUCalifornia
Games played1617
Wins128
Losses49
Points scored505420
Points conceded321488
Scored per game31.624.7
Conceded per game20.128.7
Home record8W 0L5W 4L
Away record4W 4L3W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

SMU spreadCoversFair
SMU -20.532%+208
SMU -16.542%+139
SMU -13.549%+103
SMU -10.557%-131
SMU -6.566%-196
Total pointsOverUnder
45.567%33%
49.557%43%
52.550%50%
55.542%58%
59.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. SMU +3.5 wins if SMU win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
College Football

Clemson Powers Past Cal Behind Strong Defense and Ground Attack

Clemson beat California 24-10 on Friday, using a dominant defense and 255 rushing yards to secure the road victory.

26 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs?

Our prediction for California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs is SMU Mustangs to win, with a 78% chance. We project California Golden Bears 19.6 and SMU Mustangs 32.8. Our best bet is SMU to win at -360.

What is the projected score for California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs?

We project California Golden Bears 19.6 and SMU Mustangs 32.8, about 52.5 points in total.

How are SMU Mustangs playing?

SMU Mustangs have 12 wins and 4 losses in their last 16 games, with 505 points scored and 321 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are California Golden Bears playing?

California Golden Bears have 8 wins and 9 losses in their last 17 games, with 420 points scored and 488 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when SMU Mustangs and California Golden Bears last met?

It ended California Golden Bears 38, SMU Mustangs 35. In the last 1 meeting SMU Mustangs won 0 and California Golden Bears won 1.

What is the best bet for California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs?

SMU to win at -360, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in SMU against California. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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