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Predictions › United Kingdom › Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth
Premier LeagueSat 10 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth prediction

Stamford Bridge

ChelseaHome
1.84 : 1.32
expected goals
AFC BournemouthAway
49%Chelsea
24%Draw
27%Bournemouth
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth is Chelsea to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Chelsea to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Chelsea 1.8, AFC Bournemouth 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AFC Bournemouth to win
26% chancePrice 10/3+10.0% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chelsea 49%, the draw 24% and AFC Bournemouth 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Chelsea the favourite at 8/11.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chelsea took 7 points from their last 5 games and AFC Bournemouth took 8 from 5. AFC Bournemouth come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chelsea won 6 of their last 13 games at home. AFC Bournemouth won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Chelsea score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.9. AFC Bournemouth score 1.4 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Chelsea games and 11 of AFC Bournemouth games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Chelsea won 0 and AFC Bournemouth won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Chelsea 2, AFC Bournemouth 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bournemouthrecent form+1%
Chelsea form L D W L WBournemouth form L W D W DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth: Chelsea are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chelsea host AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 at Stamford Bridge. Our prediction for Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth is Chelsea to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Chelsea form

Chelsea have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 13. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

AFC Bournemouth form

AFC Bournemouth have 7 wins, 11 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Chelsea won 0, AFC Bournemouth won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Chelsea 2, AFC Bournemouth 2.

Our call

We expect Chelsea to score about 1.8 goals and AFC Bournemouth about 1.3. That points to Chelsea to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is AFC Bournemouth to win at 10/3.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ChelseaBournemouth
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws211
Losses112
Goals scored3129
Goals conceded3719
Scored per game1.61.4
Conceded per game1.90.9
Home record6W 1D 6L2W 7D 1L
Away record1W 1D 5L5W 4D 1L
Clean sheets15%30%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Chelsea to win46%6/58/11-21.3%
A Draw23%10/33/1-6.2%
AFC Bournemouth to win26%11/410/3+10.0%
Over 3.5 goals40%6/411/10-16.6%
Under 3.5 goals54%5/64/6-9.9%
Chelsea -0.550%Evens4/6-17.9%
AFC Bournemouth +0.544%5/4Evens-12.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1/5
Over 2.5 goals61%8/13
Over 3.5 goals39%8/5
Both teams to score62%8/13
Chelsea or Draw73%4/11
AFC Bournemouth or Draw51%Evens
Chelsea to win and Over 2.535%15/8
AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.518%9/2
Chelsea clean sheet27%11/4
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet16%11/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%
2-19.5%
1-07.2%
2-07.2%
1-26.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Monaco Star Advised to Forget Chelsea After Failed Deadline Day Move

Denis Zakaria has advised Monaco teammate Lamine Camara that staying in France is better than joining Chelsea after a failed transfer bid.

21 Sept 2026
Premier League

Brentford Thump Chelsea to Leave Alonso and Colwill Hurting

Levi Colwill admits Chelsea are hurting after a heavy 3-0 defeat at Brentford exposed defensive flaws under manager Xabi Alonso.

19 Sept 2026
Premier League

Iraola Faces Tricky Bournemouth Return as Liverpool Manager

Andoni Iraola prepares to face his former club Bournemouth as unbeaten Liverpool look to exploit extra rest days.

19 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?

Our prediction for Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth is Chelsea to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Chelsea to score 1.8 goals and AFC Bournemouth 1.3.

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Chelsea last 20 games and 13 of AFC Bournemouth last 20.

How are Chelsea playing?

Chelsea have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 13. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

How are AFC Bournemouth playing?

AFC Bournemouth have 7 wins, 11 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Chelsea and AFC Bournemouth last met?

It ended Chelsea 2, AFC Bournemouth 2. In the last 2 meetings Chelsea won 0 and AFC Bournemouth won 0.

What is the best bet for Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chelsea against Bournemouth. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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