EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › United Kingdom › Chelsea vs Leeds United
Premier LeagueSat 21 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Chelsea vs Leeds United prediction

Stamford Bridge

ChelseaHome
1.69 : 1.12
expected goals
Leeds UnitedAway
50%Chelsea
25%Draw
25%Leeds
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chelsea vs Leeds United is Chelsea to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Chelsea to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Chelsea 1.7, Leeds United 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Chelsea to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 11/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chelsea 50%, the draw 25% and Leeds United 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Chelsea the favourite at 5/6.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chelsea took 7 points from their last 5 games and Leeds United took 5 from 5. Chelsea come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chelsea won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Leeds United won 3 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Chelsea score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.6. Leeds United score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Chelsea games and 8 of Leeds United games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Chelsea won 2 and Leeds United won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Chelsea 6, Leeds United 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Chelsearecent form-1%
  • Leedsrecent form-1%
Chelsea form L W L L WLeeds form W L D D LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chelsea vs Leeds United: Chelsea are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chelsea host Leeds United in the Premier League on Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 at Stamford Bridge. Our prediction for Chelsea vs Leeds United is Chelsea to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Chelsea form

Chelsea have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Leeds United form

Leeds United have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Chelsea won 2, Leeds United won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Chelsea 6, Leeds United 3.

Our call

We expect Chelsea to score about 1.7 goals and Leeds United about 1.1. That points to Chelsea to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Chelsea to win and Over 2.5 at 11/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ChelseaLeeds
Games played2020
Wins98
Draws37
Losses85
Goals scored3427
Goals conceded3123
Scored per game1.71.4
Conceded per game1.61.1
Home record7W 1D 3L5W 3D 0L
Away record2W 2D 5L3W 4D 5L
Clean sheets20%35%
Both teams scored55%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Chelsea to win47%6/55/6-13.0%
A Draw25%3/113/5-9.1%
Leeds United to win24%10/311/4-8.0%
Over 2.5 goals49%21/208/11-14.6%
Under 2.5 goals44%5/4Evens-12.0%
Chelsea -0.547%11/104/5-16.9%
Leeds United +0.546%6/55/6-15.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%2/7
Over 2.5 goals53%10/11
Over 3.5 goals31%9/4
Both teams to score56%4/5
Chelsea or Draw75%1/3
Leeds United or Draw50%Evens
Chelsea to win and Over 2.532%85/40
Leeds United to win and Over 2.515%6/1
Chelsea clean sheet33%2/1
Leeds United clean sheet19%9/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
2-19.6%
1-09.5%
2-08.6%
0-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Leeds United Face Tottenham Hotspur Ahead Of International Break

Leeds United host Tottenham Hotspur to kick off Saturday's Premier League fixtures before the 2026 international break.

7 Nov 2026
Premier League

Michael Carrick Under Pressure as Ten Man Man United Fall to Chelsea

Manchester United extended their winless run to nine games after a 2-0 defeat against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

31 Oct 2026
Premier League

Chelsea Host Manchester United on Busy Day of Football

Chelsea face Manchester United in a big Premier League match on Halloween as a full slate of European fixtures gets underway.

31 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Chelsea vs Leeds United?

Our prediction for Chelsea vs Leeds United is Chelsea to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Chelsea vs Leeds United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Chelsea to score 1.7 goals and Leeds United 1.1.

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Chelsea last 20 games and 10 of Leeds United last 20.

How are Chelsea playing?

Chelsea have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Leeds United playing?

Leeds United have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Chelsea and Leeds United last met?

It ended Chelsea 6, Leeds United 3. In the last 4 meetings Chelsea won 2 and Leeds United won 1.

What is the best bet for Chelsea vs Leeds United?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/7, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chelsea against Leeds. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.