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Predictions › United Kingdom › Chelsea vs Manchester United
Premier LeagueSat 31 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction

Stamford Bridge

ChelseaHome
1.78 : 1.35
expected goals
Manchester UnitedAway
47%Chelsea
24%Draw
29%Man United
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chelsea vs Manchester United is Chelsea to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction
Chelsea to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Chelsea 1.8, Manchester United 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 2/92 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Manchester United to win
27% chancePrice 13/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chelsea 47%, the draw 24% and Manchester United 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Chelsea the favourite at 5/6.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chelsea took 10 points from their last 5 games and Manchester United took 3 from 5. Chelsea come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chelsea won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Manchester United won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Chelsea score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.7. Manchester United score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Chelsea games and 12 of Manchester United games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Chelsea won 0 and Manchester United won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Chelsea 0, Manchester United 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Chelsearecent form+3%
  • Man Unitedrecent form-3%
  • Chelseateam news-1%
Chelsea form W W L D WMan United form D L D D LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chelsea vs Manchester United: Chelsea are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chelsea host Manchester United in the Premier League on Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 at Stamford Bridge. Our prediction for Chelsea vs Manchester United is Chelsea to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Chelsea form

Chelsea have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Manchester United form

Manchester United have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Chelsea won 0, Manchester United won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Chelsea 0, Manchester United 1.

Our call

We expect Chelsea to score about 1.8 goals and Manchester United about 1.4. That points to Chelsea to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Manchester United to win at 13/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ChelseaMan United
Games played2020
Wins98
Draws26
Losses96
Goals scored3835
Goals conceded3427
Scored per game1.91.8
Conceded per game1.71.4
Home record7W 1D 4L6W 1D 3L
Away record2W 1D 5L2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored50%65%
Over 2.5 goals70%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Chelsea to win46%6/55/6-14.0%
A Draw23%10/311/4-9.8%
Manchester United to win27%13/513/5-1.4%
Over 3.5 goals41%7/55/4-6.9%
Under 3.5 goals54%5/64/7-14.2%
Chelsea -0.548%11/104/5-15.5%
Manchester United +0.548%11/105/6-11.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1/5
Over 2.5 goals61%4/6
Over 3.5 goals38%13/8
Both teams to score62%8/13
Chelsea or Draw71%2/5
Manchester United or Draw53%10/11
Chelsea to win and Over 2.533%2/1
Manchester United to win and Over 2.519%4/1
Chelsea clean sheet26%11/4
Manchester United clean sheet17%5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%
2-19.3%
1-07.1%
1-27.1%
2-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Michael Carrick Demands Wins As Manchester United Pressure Mounts

Michael Carrick insists he has the support of Manchester United board members, but accepts he must turn around a six match winless run.

20 hours ago
Premier League

Fàbregas Rejects Man United Job Rumors Ahead of European Clash

Cesc Fàbregas called rumors linking him to the Manchester United job disrespectful to Michael Carrick ahead of their meeting in Italy.

22 hours ago
Premier League

Rogers Hails João Pedro Form as Chelsea Attack Clicks

Morgan Rogers says João Pedro is at the peak of his powers as Chelsea climb to fourth in the Premier League.

20 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?

Our prediction for Chelsea vs Manchester United is Chelsea to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Chelsea vs Manchester United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Chelsea to score 1.8 goals and Manchester United 1.4.

Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Manchester United?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Chelsea last 20 games and 13 of Manchester United last 20.

How are Chelsea playing?

Chelsea have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Manchester United playing?

Manchester United have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Chelsea and Manchester United last met?

It ended Chelsea 0, Manchester United 1. In the last 2 meetings Chelsea won 0 and Manchester United won 2.

What is the best bet for Chelsea vs Manchester United?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/9, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chelsea against Man United. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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