Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Steelers +2.5

74% chanceFair price -2861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Pittsburgh Steelers 63% and Cleveland Browns 37%. The bookmakers agree and make Pittsburgh Steelers the favourite at -205.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Pittsburgh Steelers won 3 of their last 5 and Cleveland Browns won 4 of their last 5. Cleveland Browns come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Pittsburgh Steelers won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Cleveland Browns won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Pittsburgh Steelers score 21.0 points a game and let in 21.2. Cleveland Browns score 17.9 and let in 21.6. Their recent games average 42.2 and 39.5 points in total, and the market line is 38.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Pittsburgh Steelers won 1 and Cleveland Browns won 2. The last one ended Cleveland Browns 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 24.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Steelers +2.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Steelers +3.5 wins if Steelers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.