Predictions › Italy › Como vs AS Roma

Serie ASun 11 Oct, 10:30 Italy time

Como vs AS Roma prediction

Giuseppe Sinigaglia

ComoHome

1.47 : 1.43

expected goals

AS RomaAway

38%Como

26%Draw

36%AS Roma

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Como vs AS Roma is Como to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Como to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Como 1.5, AS Roma 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

12% chanceFair price 8.151 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Como 38%, the draw 26% and AS Roma 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Como the favourite at 2.45.
2
Recent form
Como took 12 points from their last 5 games and AS Roma took 11 from 5. Como come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Como won 6 of their last 8 games at home. AS Roma won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Como score 2.0 goals a game and let in 0.9. AS Roma score 2.2 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Como games and 12 of AS Roma games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Como won 1 and AS Roma won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Como 2, AS Roma 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Comorecent form+4%
AS Romarecent form+4%

Como form L W W W WAS Roma form D W D W WHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Como vs AS Roma: Como shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Como host AS Roma in the Serie A on Sun 11 Oct, 10:30 at Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Our prediction for Como vs AS Roma is Como to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Como form

Como have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

AS Roma form

AS Roma have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Como won 1, AS Roma won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Como 2, AS Roma 1.

Our call

We expect Como to score about 1.5 goals and AS Roma about 1.4. That points to Como to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 8.15.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Como	AS Roma
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	11
Draws	4	5
Losses	3	4
Goals scored	40	44
Goals conceded	18	24
Scored per game	2.0	2.2
Conceded per game	0.9	1.2
Home record	6W 1D 1L	6W 3D 1L
Away record	7W 3D 2L	5W 2D 3L
Clean sheets	35%	45%
Both teams scored	60%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Como to win	36%	2.81	2.45	-12.7%
A Draw	26%	3.91	3.40	-13.1%
AS Roma to win	34%	2.90	2.45	-15.6%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.65	-12.8%
Under 2.5 goals	41%	2.43	2.15	-11.7%
Como -0.5	36%	2.76	2.35	-14.9%
AS Roma +0.5	59%	1.68	1.48	-12.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.81
Over 3.5 goals	33%	3.03
Both teams to score	59%	1.69
Como or Draw	64%	1.57
AS Roma or Draw	62%	1.60
Como to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.11
AS Roma to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.28
Como clean sheet	24%	4.20
AS Roma clean sheet	23%	4.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

2-18.5%

1-28.3%

1-07.4%

0-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Chelsea prepare new January bid for Roma midfielder Manu Kone

Chelsea are ready to renew their interest in Roma midfielder Manu Kone, while Liverpool and Manchester United eye other major targets.

13 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Como vs AS Roma?

Our prediction for Como vs AS Roma is Como to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Como vs AS Roma?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Como to score 1.5 goals and AS Roma 1.4.

Will both teams score in Como vs AS Roma?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Como last 20 games and 11 of AS Roma last 20.

How are Como playing?

How are AS Roma playing?

What happened when Como and AS Roma last met?

It ended Como 2, AS Roma 1. In the last 2 meetings Como won 1 and AS Roma won 1.

What is the best bet for Como vs AS Roma?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Como against AS Roma. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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