Predictions › Italy › Como vs Cagliari

Serie ASat 21 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Como vs Cagliari prediction

Giuseppe Sinigaglia

ComoHome

2.27 : 0.79

expected goals

CagliariAway

70%Como

19%Draw

11%Cagliari

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Como vs Cagliari is Como to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Como to win
Chance: 70%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Como 2.3, Cagliari 0.8
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Como to win and both score

30% chanceFair price 3.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Como 70%, the draw 19% and Cagliari 11%. The bookmakers agree and make Como the favourite at 1.28.
2
Recent form
Como took 12 points from their last 5 games and Cagliari took 3 from 5. Como come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Como won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Cagliari won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Como score 2.3 goals a game and let in 0.8. Cagliari score 0.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Como games and 9 of Cagliari games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Como won 1 and Cagliari won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Cagliari 1, Como 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Comorecent form+4%
Cagliarirecent form-4%

Como form L W W W WCagliari form W L L L LHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Como vs Cagliari: Como are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Como host Cagliari in the Serie A on Sat 21 Nov, 14:00 at Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Our prediction for Como vs Cagliari is Como to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Como form

Como have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 45 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Cagliari form

Cagliari have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Como won 1, Cagliari won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Cagliari 1, Como 2.

Our call

We expect Como to score about 2.3 goals and Cagliari about 0.8. That points to Como to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Como to win and both score at 3.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Como	Cagliari
Games played	20	20
Wins	14	9
Draws	3	2
Losses	3	9
Goals scored	45	19
Goals conceded	17	27
Scored per game	2.3	0.9
Conceded per game	0.8	1.4
Home record	6W 2D 0L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	8W 1D 3L	4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	35%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Como to win	72%	1.39	1.28	-8.3%
A Draw	18%	5.61	5.00	-10.8%
Cagliari to win	10%	9.59	8.00	-16.6%
Over 3.5 goals	39%	2.58	2.25	-12.9%
Under 3.5 goals	55%	1.83	1.57	-14.3%
Como -1.5	46%	2.17	1.80	-16.9%
Cagliari +1.5	47%	2.13	1.83	-14.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.69
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.72
Both teams to score	50%	2.02
Como or Draw	89%	1.12
Cagliari or Draw	30%	3.38
Como to win and Over 2.5	48%	2.07
Cagliari to win and Over 2.5	6%	15.91
Como clean sheet	45%	2.20
Cagliari clean sheet	10%	9.72

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-012.1%

1-010.1%

2-19.5%

3-09.1%

1-18.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Champions League

Como Crush Lens 9-1 in Historic Champions League Rout

Cesc Fabregas saw his Como side beat Lens 9-1 away in the Champions League, setting a competition record for goals on the road.

4 Nov 2026

Champions League

Fabregas Regrets Telling Como to Ease Off in Man United Win

Cesc Fabregas expressed regret for telling his Como players to slow down near the end of their 4-1 win over Manchester United.

22 Oct 2026

Champions League

Tielemans Speaks Out After Manchester United Slump Against Como

Youri Tielemans called Manchester United's 4-1 loss to Como very poor as the team went seven straight games without a win.

22 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Como vs Cagliari?

Our prediction for Como vs Cagliari is Como to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Como vs Cagliari?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Como to score 2.3 goals and Cagliari 0.8.

Will both teams score in Como vs Cagliari?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Como last 20 games and 8 of Cagliari last 20.

How are Como playing?

How are Cagliari playing?

What happened when Como and Cagliari last met?

It ended Cagliari 1, Como 2. In the last 2 meetings Como won 1 and Cagliari won 0.

What is the best bet for Como vs Cagliari?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Como against Cagliari. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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