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Predictions › United States › Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans
NFLSun 4 Oct, 13:00 United States time

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans prediction

Reliant Stadium

Dallas CowboysAway
23.1 : 24.4
projected points
Houston TexansHome
48%Cowboys
52%Texans
Eagle safe pickCowboys +9.5
-290

Quick answer

Our prediction for Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans is Houston Texans to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Dallas Cowboys 23.1 and Houston Texans 24.4. Our best bet is Cowboys +9.5 at -290.

Prediction
Houston Texans to win
Chance
52%
Projected score
Dallas Cowboys 23, Houston Texans 24
Projected total
47.5 points
Best bet
Cowboys +9.5 at -290

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Cowboys +9.5
74% chanceFair price -2901 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Houston Texans 52% and Dallas Cowboys 48%. The bookmakers agree and make Houston Texans the favourite at -135.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Houston Texans won 0 of their last 5 and Dallas Cowboys won 2 of their last 5. Dallas Cowboys come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Houston Texans won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Dallas Cowboys won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Houston Texans score 21.8 points a game and let in 20.4. Dallas Cowboys score 28.0 and let in 27.4. Their recent games average 42.2 and 55.4 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Cowboys +9.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Texansrest between games-5%
  • Cowboysrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans: Houston Texans shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Houston Texans host Dallas Cowboys in the NFL on Sun 4 Oct, 13:00 at Reliant Stadium. Our prediction for Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans is Houston Texans to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Dallas Cowboys 23.1 and Houston Texans 24.4. Our best bet is Cowboys +9.5 at -290.

Houston Texans form

Houston Texans have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 436 points scored and 408 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Dallas Cowboys form

Dallas Cowboys have 9 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 560 points scored and 548 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Dallas Cowboys to score about 23.1 points and Houston Texans about 24.4. That points to Houston Texans to win. Our safest bet is Cowboys +9.5 at -290.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TexansCowboys
Games played2020
Wins119
Losses910
Points scored436560
Points conceded408548
Scored per game21.828.0
Conceded per game20.427.4
Home record6W 5L4W 5L
Away record5W 4L5W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Texans to win52%-107-135-10.2%
Cowboys to win42%+137+114-9.8%
Texans -2.543%+132-110-17.7%
Cowboys +2.551%-103-110-3.4%
Over 47.5 points47%+113-115-12.2%
Under 47.5 points47%+114-105-8.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Texans spreadCoversFair
Texans -8.530%+239
Texans -4.540%+147
Texans -1.549%+103
Texans +1.558%-138
Texans +5.569%-224
Total pointsOverUnder
40.571%29%
44.559%41%
47.550%50%
50.541%59%
54.530%70%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Texans +3.5 wins if Texans win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Tyler Loop Hits 56-Yard Winner as Ravens Stun Cowboys in Rio

Tyler Loop kicked a 56-yard field goal with no time left to give the Baltimore Ravens a 34-31 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro.

7 hours ago
NFL

Cowboys and Lions Inquire About Steelers Cornerback Joey Porter Jr

The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions have contacted the Pittsburgh Steelers about a trade for cornerback Joey Porter Jr.

23 hours ago
NFL

Groundskeepers Rush to Ready Rio Field for Cowboys and Ravens

Workers are preparing the Maracana turf in Rio de Janeiro ahead of Sunday's game between the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens.

26 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans?

Our prediction for Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans is Houston Texans to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Dallas Cowboys 23.1 and Houston Texans 24.4. Our best bet is Cowboys +9.5 at -290.

What is the projected score for Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans?

We project Dallas Cowboys 23.1 and Houston Texans 24.4, about 47.5 points in total.

How are Houston Texans playing?

Houston Texans have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 436 points scored and 408 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Dallas Cowboys playing?

Dallas Cowboys have 9 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 560 points scored and 548 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans?

Cowboys +9.5 at -290, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Texans against Cowboys. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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