Predictions › United States › Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

NFLSun 4 Oct, 16:25 United States time

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers prediction

Levi's Stadium

Denver BroncosAway

21.5 : 24.0

projected points

San Francisco 49ersHome

44%Broncos

56%49ers

Eagle safe pickUnder 53.5 points

-291

Quick answer

Our prediction for Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers is San Francisco 49ers to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Denver Broncos 21.5 and San Francisco 49ers 24.0. Our best bet is Under 53.5 points at -291.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers to win
Chance: 56%
Projected score: Denver Broncos 21, San Francisco 49ers 24
Projected total: 45.5 points
Best bet: Under 53.5 points at -291

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 53.5 points

74% chanceFair price -2911 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives San Francisco 49ers 56% and Denver Broncos 44%. The bookmakers agree and make San Francisco 49ers the favourite at -166.
2
Recent form
San Francisco 49ers won 5 of their last 5 and Denver Broncos won 3 of their last 5. San Francisco 49ers come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
San Francisco 49ers won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Denver Broncos won 6 of their last 7 on the road.
4
Scoring
San Francisco 49ers score 26.5 points a game and let in 21.6. Denver Broncos score 22.9 and let in 19.1. Their recent games average 48.0 and 42.0 points in total, and the market line is 46.5.
5
The safest bet
Under 53.5 points has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

49ersrest between games-5%
Broncosrest between games-5%

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 49ers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

San Francisco 49ers host Denver Broncos in the NFL on Sun 4 Oct, 16:25 at Levi's Stadium. Our prediction for Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers is San Francisco 49ers to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project Denver Broncos 21.5 and San Francisco 49ers 24.0. Our best bet is Under 53.5 points at -291.

San Francisco 49ers form

San Francisco 49ers have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 530 points scored and 431 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Denver Broncos form

Denver Broncos have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 458 points scored and 383 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Denver Broncos to score about 21.5 points and San Francisco 49ers about 24.0. That points to San Francisco 49ers to win. Our safest bet is Under 53.5 points at -291.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	49ers	Broncos
Games played	20	20
Wins	14	16
Losses	6	4
Points scored	530	458
Points conceded	431	383
Scored per game	26.5	22.9
Conceded per game	21.6	19.1
Home record	6W 3L	10W 3L
Away record	8W 3L	6W 1L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
49ers to win	56%	-128	-166	-10.0%
Broncos to win	38%	+166	+140	-9.8%
49ers -3	46%	+119	-110	-13.0%
Broncos +3	48%	+108	-110	-8.1%
Over 46.5 points	44%	+128	-110	-16.4%
Under 46.5 points	50%	+100	-110	-4.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

49ers spread	Covers	Fair
49ers -9.5	30%	+229
49ers -5.5	41%	+141
49ers -2.5	50%	-101
49ers +0.5	59%	-144
49ers +4.5	70%	-233

Total points	Over	Under
38.5	71%	29%
42.5	59%	41%
45.5	50%	50%
48.5	41%	59%
52.5	30%	70%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. 49ers +3.5 wins if 49ers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news

NFL

Sean Payton Demands Faster Starts After Broncos Rally Past Rams

Sean Payton wants the Broncos to fix their slow starts after Denver pulled off a 30-26 comeback win against the Rams.

33 min ago

NFL

Sean McVay Questions Late Penalty in Rams Loss to Denver

Sean McVay and the Rams reacted to a late pass interference call that helped Denver secure a 30-26 victory on Sunday night.

3 hours ago

NFL

Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey Make History in 49ers Win

Brock Purdy put on a near-perfect display and Christian McCaffrey reached a career milestone as the San Francisco 49ers beat the Dolphins 35-13.

21 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers?

What is the projected score for Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers?

We project Denver Broncos 21.5 and San Francisco 49ers 24.0, about 45.5 points in total.

How are San Francisco 49ers playing?

How are Denver Broncos playing?

What is the best bet for Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers?

Under 53.5 points at -291, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in 49ers against Broncos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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