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Predictions › United States › Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat
NBASat 14 Nov, 20:00 United States time

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat prediction

Kaseya Center

Detroit PistonsAway
119.9 : 115.1
projected points
Miami HeatHome
66%Pistons
34%Heat
Eagle safe pickPistons +3.5
-309

Quick answer

Our prediction for Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat is Detroit Pistons to win, with a 66% chance. We project Detroit Pistons 119.9 and Miami Heat 115.1. Our best bet is Pistons +3.5 at -309.

Prediction
Detroit Pistons to win
Chance
66%
Projected score
Detroit Pistons 120, Miami Heat 115
Projected total
235.0 points
Best bet
Pistons +3.5 at -309

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Pistons +3.5
76% chanceFair price -3092 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heat to win
34% chanceFair price +1911 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Miami Heat 34% and Detroit Pistons 66%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Miami Heat won 2 of their last 5 and Detroit Pistons won 3 of their last 5. Detroit Pistons come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Miami Heat won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Detroit Pistons won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Miami Heat score 124.3 points a game and let in 124.0. Detroit Pistons score 111.5 and let in 106.1. Their recent games average 248.3 and 217.7 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Miami Heat won 2 and Detroit Pistons won 2. The last one ended Miami Heat 111, Detroit Pistons 128.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Pistons +3.5 has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heatrest between games-2%
  • Pistonsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat: Detroit Pistons are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Miami Heat host Detroit Pistons in the NBA on Sat 14 Nov, 20:00 at Kaseya Center. Our prediction for Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat is Detroit Pistons to win, with a 66% chance. We project Detroit Pistons 119.9 and Miami Heat 115.1. Our best bet is Pistons +3.5 at -309.

Miami Heat form

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2485 points scored and 2481 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Detroit Pistons form

Detroit Pistons have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 2231 points scored and 2122 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Miami Heat won 2, Detroit Pistons won 2. Last time out it finished Miami Heat 111, Detroit Pistons 128.

Our call

We expect Detroit Pistons to score about 119.9 points and Miami Heat about 115.1. That points to Detroit Pistons to win. Our safest bet is Pistons +3.5 at -309. Our bold bet is Heat to win at +191.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HeatPistons
Games played2020
Wins913
Losses117
Points scored24852231
Points conceded24812122
Scored per game124.3111.5
Conceded per game124.0106.1
Home record6W 5L7W 3L
Away record3W 6L6W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Heat spreadCoversFair
Heat -1.531%+223
Heat +1.540%+151
Heat +4.549%+103
Heat +7.559%-143
Heat +10.568%-211
Total pointsOverUnder
228.564%36%
231.558%42%
234.551%49%
237.544%56%
240.538%62%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Heat +3.5 wins if Heat win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Giannis Powers Miami Past Hawks as Adebayo Makes Heat History

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo led the Miami Heat to their first victory of the season with a 129-117 win over Atlanta.

29 Oct 2026
NBA

76ers Hold Out Joel Embiid Against Detroit Despite His Plea

Philadelphia rests Joel Embiid for Sunday's game against Detroit to manage his foot injury despite his request to play.

25 Oct 2026
NBA

Jalen Duren Out At Least Two Weeks With Hamstring Injury

Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren will miss at least two weeks with a right hamstring strain suffered during Friday's victory over Miami.

25 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat?

Our prediction for Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat is Detroit Pistons to win, with a 66% chance. We project Detroit Pistons 119.9 and Miami Heat 115.1. Our best bet is Pistons +3.5 at -309.

What is the projected score for Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat?

We project Detroit Pistons 119.9 and Miami Heat 115.1, about 235.0 points in total.

How are Miami Heat playing?

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2485 points scored and 2481 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Detroit Pistons playing?

Detroit Pistons have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 2231 points scored and 2122 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons last met?

It ended Miami Heat 111, Detroit Pistons 128. In the last 4 meetings Miami Heat won 2 and Detroit Pistons won 2.

What is the best bet for Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat?

Pistons +3.5 at -309, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Heat against Pistons. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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