Predictions › Spain › Elche vs Valencia

LaLigaSun 1 Nov, 17:30 Spain time

Elche vs Valencia prediction

Estadio Martínez Valero

ElcheHome

1.35 : 1.31

expected goals

ValenciaAway

37%Elche

28%Draw

35%Valencia

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Elche vs Valencia is Elche to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Elche to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Elche 1.4, Valencia 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Valencia to win

35% chancePrice 2.801 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Elche 37%, the draw 28% and Valencia 35%. The bookmakers agree and make Elche the favourite at 2.45.
2
Recent form
Elche took 6 points from their last 5 games and Valencia took 5 from 5. Elche come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Elche won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Valencia won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Elche score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Valencia score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Elche games and 8 of Valencia games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Elche won 1 and Valencia won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Elche 1, Valencia 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Valenciarecent form-1%

Elche form D D W L DValencia form D D L W LHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Elche vs Valencia: Elche shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Elche host Valencia in the LaLiga on Sun 1 Nov, 17:30 at Estadio Martínez Valero. Our prediction for Elche vs Valencia is Elche to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Elche form

Elche have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Valencia form

Valencia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Elche won 1, Valencia won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Elche 1, Valencia 0.

Our call

We expect Elche to score about 1.4 goals and Valencia about 1.3. That points to Elche to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Valencia to win at 2.80.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Elche	Valencia
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	6
Draws	6	5
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	25	22
Goals conceded	33	29
Scored per game	1.3	1.1
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	4W 2D 3L	2W 3D 5L
Away record	2W 4D 5L	4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	70%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Elche to win	37%	2.69	2.45	-8.9%
A Draw	27%	3.75	3.30	-12.1%
Valencia to win	35%	2.86	2.80	-2.0%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.13	1.91	-10.3%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	2.06	1.80	-12.7%
Elche -0.5	40%	2.52	2.25	-10.7%
Valencia +0.5	56%	1.79	1.51	-15.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.02
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.62
Both teams to score	55%	1.83
Elche or Draw	65%	1.55
Valencia or Draw	63%	1.59
Elche to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.53
Valencia to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.80
Elche clean sheet	27%	3.70
Valencia clean sheet	26%	3.85

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

1-08.7%

0-18.4%

2-18.3%

1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

LaLiga

Valencia Eye Former Mexico Coach Javier Aguirre for Manager Vacancy

Valencia are in advanced talks with Javier Aguirre to take over as manager after a poor start to the season.

19 Sept 2026

LaLiga

Valencia Sacks Coach Carlos Corberan and CEO Ron Gourlay

Valencia has dismissed coach Carlos Corberan and CEO Ron Gourlay with the team winless and sitting bottom of LaLiga.

14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Elche vs Valencia?

Our prediction for Elche vs Valencia is Elche to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Elche vs Valencia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Elche to score 1.4 goals and Valencia 1.3.

Will both teams score in Elche vs Valencia?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Elche last 20 games and 9 of Valencia last 20.

How are Elche playing?

How are Valencia playing?

What happened when Elche and Valencia last met?

It ended Elche 1, Valencia 0. In the last 2 meetings Elche won 1 and Valencia won 0.

What is the best bet for Elche vs Valencia?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Elche against Valencia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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