Predictions › Portugal › Estrela vs Benfica

Primeira LigaSun 8 Nov, 20:30 Portugal time

Estrela vs Benfica prediction

Estádio José Gomes

EstrelaHome

0.89 : 2.57

expected goals

BenficaAway

10%Estrela

17%Draw

73%Benfica

Eagle safe pickBenfica to win

1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Estrela vs Benfica is Benfica to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Benfica to win at 1.34.

Prediction: Benfica to win
Chance: 73%
Most likely score: 0-2
Expected goals: Estrela 0.9, Benfica 2.6
Best bet: Benfica to win at 1.34
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Benfica to win

74% chanceFair price 1.341 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Benfica to win and both score

35% chanceFair price 2.861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Estrela 10%, the draw 17% and Benfica 73%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Estrela took 4 points from their last 5 games and Benfica took 12 from 5. Benfica come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Estrela won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Benfica won 8 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Estrela score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Benfica score 2.8 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Estrela games and 16 of Benfica games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Estrela won 0 and Benfica won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Benfica 4, Estrela 0.
6
The safest bet
Benfica to win has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Estrelarecent form-1%
Benficarecent form+3%

Estrela form D W L L DBenfica form D W W W LHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Estrela vs Benfica: Benfica are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Estrela host Benfica in the Primeira Liga on Sun 8 Nov, 20:30 at Estádio José Gomes. Our prediction for Estrela vs Benfica is Benfica to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Benfica to win at 1.34.

Estrela form

Estrela have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Benfica form

Benfica have 15 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 55 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Estrela won 0, Benfica won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Benfica 4, Estrela 0.

Our call

We expect Estrela to score about 0.9 goals and Benfica about 2.6. That points to Benfica to win, with 0-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Benfica to win at 1.34. Our bold bet is Benfica to win and both score at 2.86.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Estrela	Benfica
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	15
Draws	8	4
Losses	9	1
Goals scored	26	55
Goals conceded	32	18
Scored per game	1.3	2.8
Conceded per game	1.6	0.9
Home record	2W 4D 4L	7W 2D 0L
Away record	1W 4D 5L	8W 2D 1L
Clean sheets	15%	35%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.16
Over 2.5 goals	67%	1.49
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.21
Both teams to score	55%	1.83
Estrela or Draw	27%	3.73
Benfica or Draw	90%	1.12
Estrela to win and Over 2.5	7%	14.92
Benfica to win and Over 2.5	55%	1.82
Estrela clean sheet	8%	13.03
Benfica clean sheet	41%	2.43

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-210.4%

1-29.2%

0-38.9%

1-37.9%

0-17.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Chelsea and Man United Track Benfica Star Tomás Araújo

Chelsea and Manchester United are tracking Benfica's Tomás Araújo, while free agent Jadon Sancho is prepared to wait until January to find a new club.

2 Oct 2026

Europa League

Ruben Amorim Promises Tactical Changes After AC Milan Defeat

AC Milan boss Ruben Amorim says he is ready to adapt his tactics after a 2-0 home loss to Benfica extended his side's winless run to three games.

17 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?

Our prediction for Estrela vs Benfica is Benfica to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Benfica to win at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Estrela vs Benfica?

0-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-3. We expect Estrela to score 0.9 goals and Benfica 2.6.

Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Estrela last 20 games and 13 of Benfica last 20.

How are Estrela playing?

How are Benfica playing?

What happened when Estrela and Benfica last met?

It ended Benfica 4, Estrela 0. In the last 1 meeting Estrela won 0 and Benfica won 1.

What is the best bet for Estrela vs Benfica?

Benfica to win at 1.34, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Estrela against Benfica. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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