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Predictions › United States › Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs
College FootballSat 17 Oct, 22:30 United States time

Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction

Snapdragon Stadium

Fresno State BulldogsAway
21.4 : 25.4
projected points
San Diego State AztecsHome
43%Fresno St
57%San Diego St
Eagle safe pickFresno St +14.5
-297

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs is San Diego State Aztecs to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Fresno State Bulldogs 21.4 and San Diego State Aztecs 25.4. Our best bet is Fresno St +14.5 at -297.

Prediction
San Diego State Aztecs to win
Chance
57%
Projected score
Fresno State Bulldogs 21, San Diego State Aztecs 25
Projected total
46.9 points
Best bet
Fresno St +14.5 at -297

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Fresno St +14.5
75% chanceFair price -2971 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fresno St to win
37% chanceFair price +1681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives San Diego State Aztecs 57% and Fresno State Bulldogs 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    San Diego State Aztecs won 2 of their last 5 and Fresno State Bulldogs won 4 of their last 5. Fresno State Bulldogs come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    San Diego State Aztecs won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Fresno State Bulldogs won 5 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    San Diego State Aztecs score 25.7 points a game and let in 19.3. Fresno State Bulldogs score 25.9 and let in 16.9. Their recent games average 44.9 and 42.9 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, San Diego State Aztecs won 1 and Fresno State Bulldogs won 0. The last one ended Fresno State Bulldogs 0, San Diego State Aztecs 23.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Fresno St +14.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • San Diego Stteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs: San Diego State Aztecs shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

San Diego State Aztecs host Fresno State Bulldogs in the College Football on Sat 17 Oct, 22:30 at Snapdragon Stadium. Our prediction for Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs is San Diego State Aztecs to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Fresno State Bulldogs 21.4 and San Diego State Aztecs 25.4. Our best bet is Fresno St +14.5 at -297.

San Diego State Aztecs form

San Diego State Aztecs have 10 wins and 6 losses in their last 16 games, with 411 points scored and 308 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Fresno State Bulldogs form

Fresno State Bulldogs have 11 wins and 4 losses in their last 15 games, with 389 points scored and 254 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 2 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. San Diego State Aztecs won 1, Fresno State Bulldogs won 0. Last time out it finished Fresno State Bulldogs 0, San Diego State Aztecs 23.

Our call

We expect Fresno State Bulldogs to score about 21.4 points and San Diego State Aztecs about 25.4. That points to San Diego State Aztecs to win. Our safest bet is Fresno St +14.5 at -297. Our bold bet is Fresno St to win at +168.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 16 games in all competitions.

San Diego StFresno St
Games played1615
Wins1011
Losses64
Points scored411389
Points conceded308254
Scored per game25.725.9
Conceded per game19.316.9
Home record7W 2L6W 2L
Away record3W 4L5W 2L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

San Diego St spreadCoversFair
San Diego St -11.532%+212
San Diego St -7.541%+142
San Diego St -4.549%+105
San Diego St -1.556%-129
San Diego St +2.566%-193
Total pointsOverUnder
39.568%32%
43.558%42%
46.551%49%
49.543%57%
53.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. San Diego St +3.5 wins if San Diego St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
College Football

Mumps Outbreak and Injuries Batter San Diego State Football

San Diego State is dealing with a major mumps outbreak and a long injury list ahead of their game against Texas State.

1 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs?

Our prediction for Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs is San Diego State Aztecs to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Fresno State Bulldogs 21.4 and San Diego State Aztecs 25.4. Our best bet is Fresno St +14.5 at -297.

What is the projected score for Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs?

We project Fresno State Bulldogs 21.4 and San Diego State Aztecs 25.4, about 46.9 points in total.

How are San Diego State Aztecs playing?

San Diego State Aztecs have 10 wins and 6 losses in their last 16 games, with 411 points scored and 308 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Fresno State Bulldogs playing?

Fresno State Bulldogs have 11 wins and 4 losses in their last 15 games, with 389 points scored and 254 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 2 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when San Diego State Aztecs and Fresno State Bulldogs last met?

It ended Fresno State Bulldogs 0, San Diego State Aztecs 23. In the last 1 meeting San Diego State Aztecs won 1 and Fresno State Bulldogs won 0.

What is the best bet for Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs?

Fresno St +14.5 at -297, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in San Diego St against Fresno St. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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