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College FootballSat 10 Oct, 19:30 United States time

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction

Bryant-Denny Stadium

Georgia BulldogsAway
28.2 : 26.2
projected points
Alabama Crimson TideHome
60%Georgia
40%Alabama
Eagle safe pickAlabama +13
-312

Quick answer

Our prediction for Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide is Georgia Bulldogs to win, with a 60% chance. We project Georgia Bulldogs 28.2 and Alabama Crimson Tide 26.2. Our best bet is Alabama +13 at -312.

Prediction
Georgia Bulldogs to win
Chance
60%
Projected score
Georgia Bulldogs 28, Alabama Crimson Tide 26
Projected total
54.4 points
Best bet
Alabama +13 at -312

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Alabama +13
76% chanceFair price -3122 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alabama Crimson Tide 40% and Georgia Bulldogs 60%. The bookmakers agree and make Georgia Bulldogs the favourite at -155.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alabama Crimson Tide won 4 of their last 5 and Georgia Bulldogs won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alabama Crimson Tide won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Georgia Bulldogs won 7 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Alabama Crimson Tide score 32.1 points a game and let in 19.9. Georgia Bulldogs score 37.2 and let in 17.9. Their recent games average 51.9 and 55.1 points in total, and the market line is 54.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alabama Crimson Tide won 1 and Georgia Bulldogs won 1. The last one ended Alabama Crimson Tide 7, Georgia Bulldogs 28.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Alabama +13 has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide: Georgia Bulldogs are favourites

The big picture

Alabama Crimson Tide host Georgia Bulldogs in the College Football on Sat 10 Oct, 19:30 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Our prediction for Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide is Georgia Bulldogs to win, with a 60% chance. We project Georgia Bulldogs 28.2 and Alabama Crimson Tide 26.2. Our best bet is Alabama +13 at -312.

Alabama Crimson Tide form

Alabama Crimson Tide have 14 wins and 3 losses in their last 17 games, with 545 points scored and 338 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Georgia Bulldogs form

Georgia Bulldogs have 14 wins and 2 losses in their last 16 games, with 595 points scored and 286 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 0 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alabama Crimson Tide won 1, Georgia Bulldogs won 1. Last time out it finished Alabama Crimson Tide 7, Georgia Bulldogs 28.

Our call

We expect Georgia Bulldogs to score about 28.2 points and Alabama Crimson Tide about 26.2. That points to Georgia Bulldogs to win. Our safest bet is Alabama +13 at -312.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 17 games in all competitions.

AlabamaGeorgia
Games played1716
Wins1414
Losses32
Points scored545595
Points conceded338286
Scored per game32.137.2
Conceded per game19.917.9
Home record8W 2L7W 2L
Away record6W 1L7W 0L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Alabama to win40%+149+130-7.8%
Georgia to win54%-117-155-11.2%
Alabama +350%+101-110-5.3%
Georgia -344%+125-110-15.1%
Over 54.5 points47%+114-110-10.7%
Under 54.5 points47%+111-110-9.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Alabama spreadCoversFair
Alabama -5.532%+212
Alabama -1.541%+141
Alabama +1.549%+104
Alabama +4.556%-129
Alabama +8.566%-193
Total pointsOverUnder
47.567%33%
51.557%43%
54.550%50%
57.542%58%
61.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Alabama +3.5 wins if Alabama win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide?

Our prediction for Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide is Georgia Bulldogs to win, with a 60% chance. We project Georgia Bulldogs 28.2 and Alabama Crimson Tide 26.2. Our best bet is Alabama +13 at -312.

What is the projected score for Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide?

We project Georgia Bulldogs 28.2 and Alabama Crimson Tide 26.2, about 54.4 points in total.

How are Alabama Crimson Tide playing?

Alabama Crimson Tide have 14 wins and 3 losses in their last 17 games, with 545 points scored and 338 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Georgia Bulldogs playing?

Georgia Bulldogs have 14 wins and 2 losses in their last 16 games, with 595 points scored and 286 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 0 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs last met?

It ended Alabama Crimson Tide 7, Georgia Bulldogs 28. In the last 2 meetings Alabama Crimson Tide won 1 and Georgia Bulldogs won 1.

What is the best bet for Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide?

Alabama +13 at -312, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Alabama against Georgia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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