Predictions › Spain › Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

LaLigaMon 19 Oct, 19:00 Spain time

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

Estadio Coliseum

GetafeHome

1.17 : 1.03

expected goals

Rayo VallecanoAway

38%Getafe

31%Draw

31%Rayo

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano is Getafe to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction: Getafe to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Getafe 1.2, Rayo Vallecano 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.262 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Getafe to win

36% chancePrice 2.80+0.9% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Getafe 38%, the draw 31% and Rayo Vallecano 31%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 2.55, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Getafe took 5 points from their last 5 games and Rayo Vallecano took 7 from 5. Rayo Vallecano come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Getafe won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Rayo Vallecano won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Getafe score 0.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Getafe games and 10 of Rayo Vallecano games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Getafe won 0 and Rayo Vallecano won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Getafe 0, Rayo Vallecano 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Getaferecent form-1%

Getafe form W L D D LRayo form D W L W LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: Getafe shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Getafe host Rayo Vallecano in the LaLiga on Mon 19 Oct, 19:00 at Estadio Coliseum. Our prediction for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano is Getafe to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Getafe form

Getafe have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Rayo Vallecano form

Rayo Vallecano have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Getafe won 0, Rayo Vallecano won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Getafe 0, Rayo Vallecano 2.

Our call

We expect Getafe to score about 1.2 goals and Rayo Vallecano about 1.0. That points to Getafe to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Getafe to win at 2.80.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Getafe	Rayo
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	9
Draws	3	5
Losses	8	6
Goals scored	16	29
Goals conceded	16	29
Scored per game	0.8	1.4
Conceded per game	0.8	1.4
Home record	6W 2D 2L	6W 3D 0L
Away record	3W 1D 6L	3W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	15%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Getafe to win	36%	2.78	2.80	+0.9%
A Draw	29%	3.41	3.15	-7.7%
Rayo Vallecano to win	30%	3.37	2.55	-24.3%
Over 2.5 goals	36%	2.76	2.40	-12.9%
Under 2.5 goals	58%	1.71	1.53	-11.0%
Getafe +0.5	62%	1.61	1.47	-9.0%
Rayo Vallecano -0.5	34%	2.92	2.35	-19.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	65%	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	38%	2.66
Over 3.5 goals	18%	5.56
Both teams to score	45%	2.22
Getafe or Draw	69%	1.45
Rayo Vallecano or Draw	62%	1.62
Getafe to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.43
Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.84
Getafe clean sheet	36%	2.79
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet	31%	3.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.2%

1-012.2%

0-011.9%

0-110.6%

2-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

LaLiga

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14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?

Our prediction for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano is Getafe to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Getafe to score 1.2 goals and Rayo Vallecano 1.0.

Will both teams score in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 4 of Getafe last 20 games and 12 of Rayo Vallecano last 20.

How are Getafe playing?

How are Rayo Vallecano playing?

What happened when Getafe and Rayo Vallecano last met?

It ended Getafe 0, Rayo Vallecano 2. In the last 2 meetings Getafe won 0 and Rayo Vallecano won 1.

What is the best bet for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Getafe against Rayo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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