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Predictions › United States › Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat
NBAMon 16 Nov, 19:30 United States time

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat prediction

Kaseya Center

Houston RocketsAway
121.4 : 118.9
projected points
Miami HeatHome
60%Rockets
40%Heat
Eagle safe pickHeat +10.5
-304

Quick answer

Our prediction for Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat is Houston Rockets to win, with a 60% chance. We project Houston Rockets 121.4 and Miami Heat 118.9. Our best bet is Heat +10.5 at -304.

Prediction
Houston Rockets to win
Chance
60%
Projected score
Houston Rockets 121, Miami Heat 119
Projected total
240.2 points
Best bet
Heat +10.5 at -304

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Heat +10.5
75% chanceFair price -3042 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heat to win
40% chanceFair price +1481 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Miami Heat 40% and Houston Rockets 60%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Miami Heat won 3 of their last 5 and Houston Rockets won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Miami Heat won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Houston Rockets won 5 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Miami Heat score 122.7 points a game and let in 123.0. Houston Rockets score 114.2 and let in 107.5. Their recent games average 245.8 and 221.7 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Miami Heat won 1 and Houston Rockets won 1. The last one ended Houston Rockets 123, Miami Heat 122.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Heat +10.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heatrest between games-5%
  • Rocketsrest between games-2%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat: Houston Rockets are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Miami Heat host Houston Rockets in the NBA on Mon 16 Nov, 19:30 at Kaseya Center. Our prediction for Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat is Houston Rockets to win, with a 60% chance. We project Houston Rockets 121.4 and Miami Heat 118.9. Our best bet is Heat +10.5 at -304.

Miami Heat form

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2454 points scored and 2461 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Houston Rockets form

Houston Rockets have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 2283 points scored and 2150 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Miami Heat won 1, Houston Rockets won 1. Last time out it finished Houston Rockets 123, Miami Heat 122.

Our call

We expect Houston Rockets to score about 121.4 points and Miami Heat about 118.9. That points to Houston Rockets to win. Our safest bet is Heat +10.5 at -304. Our bold bet is Heat to win at +148.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HeatRockets
Games played2020
Wins912
Losses118
Points scored24542283
Points conceded24612150
Scored per game122.7114.2
Conceded per game123.0107.5
Home record5W 4L7W 5L
Away record4W 7L5W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Heat spreadCoversFair
Heat -3.532%+217
Heat -0.541%+147
Heat +2.550%-100
Heat +5.560%-147
Heat +8.568%-217
Total pointsOverUnder
234.562%38%
237.556%44%
240.549%51%
243.543%57%
246.536%64%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Heat +3.5 wins if Heat win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Kevin Durant reflects on his eight years with the Thunder

Kevin Durant spoke about his time in Oklahoma City, the crowd support, and his connection to the community.

30 Oct 2026
NBA

Giannis Powers Miami Past Hawks as Adebayo Makes Heat History

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo led the Miami Heat to their first victory of the season with a 129-117 win over Atlanta.

29 Oct 2026
NBA

Giannis Fouls Out as Heat Drop Third Straight in Loss to Hornets

Miami fell to 0-3 after a 115-110 loss to Charlotte, where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored just 14 points before fouling out.

25 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat?

Our prediction for Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat is Houston Rockets to win, with a 60% chance. We project Houston Rockets 121.4 and Miami Heat 118.9. Our best bet is Heat +10.5 at -304.

What is the projected score for Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat?

We project Houston Rockets 121.4 and Miami Heat 118.9, about 240.2 points in total.

How are Miami Heat playing?

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2454 points scored and 2461 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Houston Rockets playing?

Houston Rockets have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 2283 points scored and 2150 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Miami Heat and Houston Rockets last met?

It ended Houston Rockets 123, Miami Heat 122. In the last 2 meetings Miami Heat won 1 and Houston Rockets won 1.

What is the best bet for Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat?

Heat +10.5 at -304, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Heat against Rockets. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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