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Predictions › United States › Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces
WNBAThu 1 Oct, 00:00 United States time

Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces prediction

Michelob ULTRA Arena

Indiana FeverAway
90.1 : 92.9
projected points
Las Vegas AcesHome
42%Fever
58%Aces
Eagle safe pickAces +4.5
-301

Quick answer

Our prediction for Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces is Las Vegas Aces to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project Indiana Fever 90.1 and Las Vegas Aces 92.9. Our best bet is Aces +4.5 at -301.

Prediction
Las Vegas Aces to win
Chance
58%
Projected score
Indiana Fever 90, Las Vegas Aces 93
Projected total
183.0 points
Best bet
Aces +4.5 at -301

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Aces +4.5
75% chanceFair price -3012 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fever to win
37% chanceFair price +1731 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Las Vegas Aces 58% and Indiana Fever 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Las Vegas Aces won 5 of their last 5 and Indiana Fever won 2 of their last 5. Las Vegas Aces come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Las Vegas Aces won 9 of their last 11 games at home. Indiana Fever won 7 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Las Vegas Aces score 93.0 points a game and let in 85.8. Indiana Fever score 98.0 and let in 91.9. Their recent games average 178.8 and 189.9 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Las Vegas Aces won 3 and Indiana Fever won 2. The last one ended Las Vegas Aces 102, Indiana Fever 85.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Aces +4.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Acesrest between games-5%
  • Feverrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces: Las Vegas Aces shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Las Vegas Aces host Indiana Fever in the WNBA on Thu 1 Oct, 00:00 at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Our prediction for Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces is Las Vegas Aces to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project Indiana Fever 90.1 and Las Vegas Aces 92.9. Our best bet is Aces +4.5 at -301.

Las Vegas Aces form

Las Vegas Aces have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 1860 points scored and 1716 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Indiana Fever form

Indiana Fever have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 1960 points scored and 1838 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Las Vegas Aces won 3, Indiana Fever won 2. Last time out it finished Las Vegas Aces 102, Indiana Fever 85.

Our call

We expect Indiana Fever to score about 90.1 points and Las Vegas Aces about 92.9. That points to Las Vegas Aces to win. Our safest bet is Aces +4.5 at -301. Our bold bet is Fever to win at +173.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AcesFever
Games played2020
Wins1413
Losses67
Points scored18601960
Points conceded17161838
Scored per game93.098.0
Conceded per game85.891.9
Home record9W 2L6W 2L
Away record5W 4L7W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Aces spreadCoversFair
Aces -8.530%+231
Aces -5.540%+148
Aces -2.551%-105
Aces +0.562%-162
Aces +3.572%-253
Total pointsOverUnder
177.564%36%
180.557%43%
183.549%51%
186.541%59%
189.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Aces +3.5 wins if Aces win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
WNBA

Stephanie White Fights to Keep Indiana Fever United for Playoff Run

Indiana Fever coach Stephanie White faces intense pressure and off court drama as her team prepares for the WNBA playoffs.

25 Sept 2026
WNBA

Fever Shift Focus to Playoffs After Tough Loss to Lynx

The Indiana Fever fell to the No. 6 seed after an 86-66 loss to Minnesota, setting up a first-round playoff matchup against the Las Vegas Aces.

25 Sept 2026
WNBA

Kelsey Mitchell Breaks WNBA Scoring Record in Fever Victory

Kelsey Mitchell scored 33 points to break the WNBA single-season scoring record during Indiana's win over Toronto.

19 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces?

Our prediction for Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces is Las Vegas Aces to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project Indiana Fever 90.1 and Las Vegas Aces 92.9. Our best bet is Aces +4.5 at -301.

What is the projected score for Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces?

We project Indiana Fever 90.1 and Las Vegas Aces 92.9, about 183.0 points in total.

How are Las Vegas Aces playing?

Las Vegas Aces have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 1860 points scored and 1716 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Indiana Fever playing?

Indiana Fever have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 1960 points scored and 1838 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever last met?

It ended Las Vegas Aces 102, Indiana Fever 85. In the last 5 meetings Las Vegas Aces won 3 and Indiana Fever won 2.

What is the best bet for Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces?

Aces +4.5 at -301, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Aces against Fever. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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