Predictions › United States › Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini

College FootballSat 21 Nov, 14:30 United States time

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction

Gies Memorial Stadium

Iowa HawkeyesAway

24.1 : 19.4

projected points

Illinois Fighting IlliniHome

64%Iowa

36%Illinois

Eagle safe pickIllinois +15.5

-313

Quick answer

Our prediction for Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini is Iowa Hawkeyes to win, with a 64% chance. We project Iowa Hawkeyes 24.1 and Illinois Fighting Illini 19.4. Our best bet is Illinois +15.5 at -313.

Prediction: Iowa Hawkeyes to win
Chance: 64%
Projected score: Iowa Hawkeyes 24, Illinois Fighting Illini 19
Projected total: 43.5 points
Best bet: Illinois +15.5 at -313

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Illinois +15.5

76% chanceFair price -3132 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Illinois to win

36% chancePrice +1701 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Illinois Fighting Illini 36% and Iowa Hawkeyes 64%. The bookmakers agree and make Iowa Hawkeyes the favourite at -205.
2
Recent form
Illinois Fighting Illini won 4 of their last 5 and Iowa Hawkeyes won 3 of their last 5. Illinois Fighting Illini come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Illinois Fighting Illini won 10 of their last 13 games at home. Iowa Hawkeyes won 7 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Scoring
Illinois Fighting Illini score 27.1 points a game and let in 24.6. Iowa Hawkeyes score 29.2 and let in 14.8. Their recent games average 51.6 and 44.0 points in total, and the market line is 43.5.
5
The safest bet
Illinois +15.5 has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini: Iowa Hawkeyes are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Illinois Fighting Illini host Iowa Hawkeyes in the College Football on Sat 21 Nov, 14:30 at Gies Memorial Stadium. Our prediction for Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini is Iowa Hawkeyes to win, with a 64% chance. We project Iowa Hawkeyes 24.1 and Illinois Fighting Illini 19.4. Our best bet is Illinois +15.5 at -313.

Illinois Fighting Illini form

Illinois Fighting Illini have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 541 points scored and 492 conceded. At home they have 10 wins and 3 losses from 13. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Iowa Hawkeyes form

Iowa Hawkeyes have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 584 points scored and 296 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Iowa Hawkeyes to score about 24.1 points and Illinois Fighting Illini about 19.4. That points to Iowa Hawkeyes to win. Our safest bet is Illinois +15.5 at -313. Our bold bet is Illinois to win at +170.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Illinois	Iowa
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	15
Losses	7	5
Points scored	541	584
Points conceded	492	296
Scored per game	27.1	29.2
Conceded per game	24.6	14.8
Home record	10W 3L	8W 3L
Away record	3W 4L	7W 2L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Illinois to win	36%	+181	+170	-4.1%
Iowa to win	60%	-153	-205	-10.1%
Illinois +5.5	48%	+108	-110	-8.3%
Iowa -5.5	45%	+122	-110	-14.1%
Over 43.5 points	47%	+115	-110	-11.2%
Under 43.5 points	47%	+115	-110	-11.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Illinois spread	Covers	Fair
Illinois -2.5	33%	+206
Illinois +1.5	42%	+137
Illinois +4.5	50%	+102
Illinois +7.5	57%	-132
Illinois +11.5	66%	-198

Total points	Over	Under
36.5	67%	33%
40.5	57%	43%
43.5	50%	50%
46.5	43%	57%
50.5	33%	67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Illinois +3.5 wins if Illinois win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news

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Questions people ask

Who will win Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini?

What is the projected score for Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini?

We project Iowa Hawkeyes 24.1 and Illinois Fighting Illini 19.4, about 43.5 points in total.

How are Illinois Fighting Illini playing?

How are Iowa Hawkeyes playing?

What is the best bet for Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini?

Illinois +15.5 at -313, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Illinois against Iowa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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