Quick answer
Our prediction for Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Kansas City Chiefs 21.2 and Denver Broncos 20.9. Our best bet is Broncos +8.5 at -292.
- Prediction
- Kansas City Chiefs to win
- Chance
- 54%
- Projected score
- Kansas City Chiefs 21, Denver Broncos 21
- Projected total
- 42.1 points
- Best bet
- Broncos +8.5 at -292
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
Broncos +8.5
74% chanceFair price -2921 unit
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives Denver Broncos 46% and Kansas City Chiefs 54%. The bookmakers agree and make Kansas City Chiefs the favourite at -125.
- 2
Recent formDenver Broncos won 4 of their last 5 and Kansas City Chiefs won 5 of their last 5. Kansas City Chiefs come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayDenver Broncos won 9 of their last 12 games at home. Kansas City Chiefs won 2 of their last 8 on the road.
- 4
ScoringDenver Broncos score 21.1 points a game and let in 18.6. Kansas City Chiefs score 20.6 and let in 17.4. Their recent games average 39.6 and 38.1 points in total, and the market line is 42.5.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 3 meetings, Denver Broncos won 2 and Kansas City Chiefs won 1. The last one ended Kansas City Chiefs 31, Denver Broncos 10.
- 6
The safest betBroncos +8.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewKansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos: Kansas City Chiefs shade it
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
Denver Broncos host Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sun 1 Nov, 16:25 at Empower Field at Mile High. Our prediction for Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Kansas City Chiefs 21.2 and Denver Broncos 20.9. Our best bet is Broncos +8.5 at -292.
Denver Broncos form
Denver Broncos have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 422 points scored and 371 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.
Kansas City Chiefs form
Kansas City Chiefs have 9 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 413 points scored and 349 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 3 times in our records. Denver Broncos won 2, Kansas City Chiefs won 1. Last time out it finished Kansas City Chiefs 31, Denver Broncos 10.
Our call
We expect Kansas City Chiefs to score about 21.2 points and Denver Broncos about 20.9. That points to Kansas City Chiefs to win. Our safest bet is Broncos +8.5 at -292.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 20 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against Draft Kings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Spread and total at every line
Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Broncos +3.5 wins if Broncos win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.
Questions people ask
Who will win Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos?
Our prediction for Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Kansas City Chiefs 21.2 and Denver Broncos 20.9. Our best bet is Broncos +8.5 at -292.
What is the projected score for Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos?
We project Kansas City Chiefs 21.2 and Denver Broncos 20.9, about 42.1 points in total.
How are Denver Broncos playing?
Denver Broncos have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 422 points scored and 371 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.
How are Kansas City Chiefs playing?
Kansas City Chiefs have 9 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 413 points scored and 349 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.
What happened when Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs last met?
It ended Kansas City Chiefs 31, Denver Broncos 10. In the last 3 meetings Denver Broncos won 2 and Kansas City Chiefs won 1.
What is the best bet for Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos?
Broncos +8.5 at -292, with a 74% chance.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Broncos against Chiefs. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
- 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
- Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
- No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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