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Predictions › United States › Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
NFLSun 4 Oct, 16:25 United States time

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction

Allegiant Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsAway
25.4 : 20.7
projected points
Las Vegas RaidersHome
68%Chiefs
32%Raiders
Eagle safe pickChiefs to win
-230

Quick answer

Our prediction for Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 68% chance. We project Kansas City Chiefs 25.4 and Las Vegas Raiders 20.7. Our best bet is Chiefs to win at -230.

Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Chance
68%
Projected score
Kansas City Chiefs 25, Las Vegas Raiders 21
Projected total
46.1 points
Best bet
Chiefs to win at -230

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Chiefs to win
66% chancePrice -2301 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Las Vegas Raiders 32% and Kansas City Chiefs 68%. The bookmakers agree and make Kansas City Chiefs the favourite at -230.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Las Vegas Raiders won 4 of their last 5 and Kansas City Chiefs won 3 of their last 5. Las Vegas Raiders come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Las Vegas Raiders won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Kansas City Chiefs won 1 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Las Vegas Raiders score 16.2 points a game and let in 23.9. Kansas City Chiefs score 21.3 and let in 18.4. Their recent games average 40.0 and 39.6 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Las Vegas Raiders won 1 and Kansas City Chiefs won 1. The last one ended Las Vegas Raiders 14, Kansas City Chiefs 12.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Chiefs to win has a 66% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Raidersrest between games-5%
  • Chiefsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders: Kansas City Chiefs are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Las Vegas Raiders host Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sun 4 Oct, 16:25 at Allegiant Stadium. Our prediction for Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 68% chance. We project Kansas City Chiefs 25.4 and Las Vegas Raiders 20.7. Our best bet is Chiefs to win at -230.

Las Vegas Raiders form

Las Vegas Raiders have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 324 points scored and 477 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Kansas City Chiefs form

Kansas City Chiefs have 8 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 426 points scored and 367 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 7 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Las Vegas Raiders won 1, Kansas City Chiefs won 1. Last time out it finished Las Vegas Raiders 14, Kansas City Chiefs 12.

Our call

We expect Kansas City Chiefs to score about 25.4 points and Las Vegas Raiders about 20.7. That points to Kansas City Chiefs to win. Our safest bet is Chiefs to win at -230.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RaidersChiefs
Games played2020
Wins68
Losses1411
Points scored324426
Points conceded477367
Scored per game16.221.3
Conceded per game23.918.4
Home record3W 8L7W 4L
Away record3W 6L1W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Raiders to win32%+212+190-7.1%
Chiefs to win66%-197-230-4.9%
Raiders +5.549%+104-115-8.2%
Chiefs -5.545%+124-105-12.8%
Over 47.5 points43%+135-110-18.9%
Under 47.5 points51%-105-110-2.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Raiders spreadCoversFair
Raiders -2.530%+238
Raiders +1.540%+147
Raiders +4.549%+103
Raiders +7.558%-138
Raiders +11.569%-224
Total pointsOverUnder
39.569%31%
43.558%42%
46.549%51%
49.540%60%
53.528%72%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Raiders +3.5 wins if Raiders win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Steichen Explains Late Game Decisions After Tough Overtime Loss to Kansas City

Indianapolis Colts coach Shane Steichen stood by his late-game playcalling and decision to defer the coin toss in Sunday's 33-30 overtime defeat.

21 Sept 2026
NFL

Kenneth Walker III Sparks Chiefs Offense in Overtime Win Against Colts

Kenneth Walker III racked up 178 all purpose yards to help the Kansas City Chiefs secure a 33-30 overtime victory against the Indianapolis Colts.

21 Sept 2026
NFL

Veteran Kirk Cousins Has the Las Vegas Raiders Flying High at 2-0

Kirk Cousins has thrown six touchdowns in two games, leading the Las Vegas Raiders to their first 2-0 start since 2021.

21 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders?

Our prediction for Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 68% chance. We project Kansas City Chiefs 25.4 and Las Vegas Raiders 20.7. Our best bet is Chiefs to win at -230.

What is the projected score for Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders?

We project Kansas City Chiefs 25.4 and Las Vegas Raiders 20.7, about 46.1 points in total.

How are Las Vegas Raiders playing?

Las Vegas Raiders have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 324 points scored and 477 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Kansas City Chiefs playing?

Kansas City Chiefs have 8 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 426 points scored and 367 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 7 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs last met?

It ended Las Vegas Raiders 14, Kansas City Chiefs 12. In the last 2 meetings Las Vegas Raiders won 1 and Kansas City Chiefs won 1.

What is the best bet for Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders?

Chiefs to win at -230, with a 66% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Raiders against Chiefs. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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