Predictions › Italy › Lazio vs Parma

Serie ASat 24 Oct, 18:45 Italy time

Lazio vs Parma prediction

Olimpico

LazioHome

1.73 : 0.78

expected goals

ParmaAway

59%Lazio

25%Draw

16%Parma

Eagle safe pickLazio or Draw

1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lazio vs Parma is Lazio to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Lazio or Draw at 1.22.

Prediction: Lazio to win
Chance: 59%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Lazio 1.7, Parma 0.8
Best bet: Lazio or Draw at 1.22
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Lazio or Draw

82% chanceFair price 1.222 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lazio to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.081 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lazio 59%, the draw 25% and Parma 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Lazio the favourite at 1.49.
2
Recent form
Lazio took 13 points from their last 5 games and Parma took 4 from 5. Lazio come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lazio won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Parma won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Lazio score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. Parma score 0.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Lazio games and 6 of Parma games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lazio won 1 and Parma won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Lazio 1, Parma 1.
6
The safest bet
Lazio or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Laziorecent form+4%
Parmarecent form-1%

Lazio form D W D W WParma form D W L D LHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lazio vs Parma: Lazio are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lazio host Parma in the Serie A on Sat 24 Oct, 18:45 at Olimpico. Our prediction for Lazio vs Parma is Lazio to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Lazio or Draw at 1.22.

Lazio form

Lazio have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Parma form

Parma have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lazio won 1, Parma won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Lazio 1, Parma 1.

Our call

We expect Lazio to score about 1.7 goals and Parma about 0.8. That points to Lazio to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Lazio or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Lazio to win and Over 2.5 at 3.08.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lazio	Parma
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	6
Draws	4	5
Losses	5	9
Goals scored	26	16
Goals conceded	21	26
Scored per game	1.3	0.8
Conceded per game	1.1	1.3
Home record	5W 3D 2L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	6W 1D 3L	2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	40%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lazio to win	55%	1.82	1.49	-18.4%
A Draw	23%	4.29	3.85	-10.2%
Parma to win	15%	6.48	5.75	-11.2%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.18	1.95	-10.7%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	2.00	1.77	-11.4%
Lazio -1.5	37%	2.73	2.35	-14.1%
Parma +1.5	60%	1.66	1.47	-11.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.39
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.18
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.09
Both teams to score	45%	2.21
Lazio or Draw	84%	1.19
Parma or Draw	41%	2.46
Lazio to win and Over 2.5	34%	2.95
Parma to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.92
Lazio clean sheet	46%	2.18
Parma clean sheet	18%	5.65

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.4%

2-012.2%

1-111.6%

2-19.5%

0-08.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Serie A

Parma Dismiss Manager Carlos Cuesta After Slow Start to Serie A Season

Parma have parted ways with head coach Carlos Cuesta after winning just one of their opening five league matches this season.

27 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Lazio vs Parma?

Our prediction for Lazio vs Parma is Lazio to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Lazio or Draw at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Lazio vs Parma?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Lazio to score 1.7 goals and Parma 0.8.

Will both teams score in Lazio vs Parma?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Lazio last 20 games and 9 of Parma last 20.

How are Lazio playing?

How are Parma playing?

What happened when Lazio and Parma last met?

It ended Lazio 1, Parma 1. In the last 2 meetings Lazio won 1 and Parma won 0.

What is the best bet for Lazio vs Parma?

Lazio or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lazio against Parma. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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