Predictions › France › Lens vs Toulouse

Ligue 1Sat 21 Nov, 19:45 France time

Lens vs Toulouse prediction

Stade Bollaert-Delelis

LensHome

1.78 : 1.29

expected goals

ToulouseAway

48%Lens

25%Draw

27%Toulouse

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lens vs Toulouse is Lens to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Lens to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lens 1.8, Toulouse 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lens to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.051 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lens 48%, the draw 25% and Toulouse 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Lens the favourite at 1.87.
2
Recent form
Lens took 3 points from their last 5 games and Toulouse took 8 from 5. Toulouse come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lens won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Toulouse won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Lens score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.9. Toulouse score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Lens games and 13 of Toulouse games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lens won 2 and Toulouse won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lens 3, Toulouse 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lensrecent form-4%
Toulouserecent form+1%

Lens form L L L W LToulouse form W L D W DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lens vs Toulouse: Lens are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lens host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 on Sat 21 Nov, 19:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Our prediction for Lens vs Toulouse is Lens to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Lens form

Lens have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Toulouse form

Toulouse have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lens won 2, Toulouse won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lens 3, Toulouse 2.

Our call

We expect Lens to score about 1.8 goals and Toulouse about 1.3. That points to Lens to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Lens to win and Over 2.5 at 3.05.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lens	Toulouse
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	7
Draws	3	5
Losses	9	8
Goals scored	33	29
Goals conceded	39	33
Scored per game	1.6	1.4
Conceded per game	1.9	1.6
Home record	5W 0D 5L	4W 2D 4L
Away record	3W 3D 4L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	10%	15%
Both teams scored	65%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lens to win	45%	2.21	1.87	-15.2%
A Draw	24%	4.18	3.90	-6.8%
Toulouse to win	27%	3.76	3.65	-3.0%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.90	1.61	-15.5%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	2.47	2.20	-11.1%
Lens -0.5	47%	2.13	1.77	-17.1%
Toulouse +0.5	46%	2.17	1.87	-13.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.69
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.72
Both teams to score	61%	1.64
Lens or Draw	73%	1.37
Toulouse or Draw	52%	1.94
Lens to win and Over 2.5	33%	3.00
Toulouse to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.59
Lens clean sheet	28%	3.62
Toulouse clean sheet	17%	5.93

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%

2-19.5%

1-07.7%

2-07.4%

1-26.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Ligue 1

Gio Reyna Hurt After Scoring Ahead of USMNT Matches

Gio Reyna scored for Strasbourg but left with an apparent injury before the USMNT Nations League matches.

7 Nov 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?

Our prediction for Lens vs Toulouse is Lens to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Lens vs Toulouse?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Lens to score 1.8 goals and Toulouse 1.3.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Toulouse?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Lens last 20 games and 11 of Toulouse last 20.

How are Lens playing?

How are Toulouse playing?

What happened when Lens and Toulouse last met?

It ended Lens 3, Toulouse 2. In the last 2 meetings Lens won 2 and Toulouse won 0.

What is the best bet for Lens vs Toulouse?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lens against Toulouse. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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