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Predictions › Champions League › Liverpool vs Villarreal
Champions LeagueTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction

Anfield

LiverpoolHome
2.08 : 1.11
expected goals
VillarrealAway
59%Liverpool
22%Draw
19%Villarreal
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Villarreal is Liverpool to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Liverpool to win
Chance
59%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Liverpool 2.1, Villarreal 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Liverpool to win and Over 2.5
40% chanceFair price 2.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Liverpool 59%, the draw 22% and Villarreal 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Liverpool took 13 points from their last 5 games and Villarreal took 6 from 5. Liverpool come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Liverpool won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Villarreal won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Liverpool score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Villarreal score 1.9 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Liverpool games and 14 of Villarreal games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Liverpoolrecent form+6%
  • Villarrealrecent form-1%
  • Liverpoolteam news-3%
Liverpool form W W D W WVillarreal form W W L L LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Liverpool vs Villarreal: Liverpool are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Liverpool host Villarreal in the Champions League on Tue 20 Oct, 19:00 at Anfield. Our prediction for Liverpool vs Villarreal is Liverpool to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Villarreal form

Villarreal have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Liverpool to score about 2.1 goals and Villarreal about 1.1. That points to Liverpool to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Liverpool to win and Over 2.5 at 2.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LiverpoolVillarreal
Games played2020
Wins88
Draws65
Losses67
Goals scored3139
Goals conceded2830
Scored per game1.61.9
Conceded per game1.41.5
Home record5W 5D 1L6W 0D 3L
Away record3W 1D 5L2W 5D 4L
Clean sheets25%0%
Both teams scored60%85%
Over 2.5 goals55%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.61
Over 3.5 goals40%2.52
Both teams to score59%1.68
Liverpool or Draw81%1.24
Villarreal or Draw41%2.45
Liverpool to win and Over 2.542%2.37
Villarreal to win and Over 2.513%7.98
Liverpool clean sheet33%3.04
Villarreal clean sheet12%8.04

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.1%
2-19.9%
2-08.9%
1-08.0%
3-16.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Iraola backs Barcola to deliver for Liverpool despite France criticism

Andoni Iraola defended Bradley Barcola after criticism in France, backing the forward ahead of Manchester City's visit.

11 hours ago
Premier League

Liverpool Face Injury Blow Ahead of Manchester City Clash

Liverpool head coach Andoni Iraola has confirmed that Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo will miss this Sunday's match against Manchester City.

9 Oct 2026
Premier League

Liverpool Injury Crisis Deepens Ahead of Manchester City Clash

Liverpool face a defensive and attacking injury crisis ahead of their major clash with Manchester City.

6 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Villarreal is Liverpool to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Liverpool vs Villarreal?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Liverpool to score 2.1 goals and Villarreal 1.1.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Villarreal?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Liverpool last 20 games and 17 of Villarreal last 20.

How are Liverpool playing?

Liverpool have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Villarreal playing?

Villarreal have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Villarreal?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Liverpool against Villarreal. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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