Predictions › France › Lorient vs AS Monaco

Ligue 1Sun 18 Oct, 15:15 France time

Lorient vs AS Monaco prediction

Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

LorientHome

1.27 : 1.60

expected goals

AS MonacoAway

30%Lorient

26%Draw

44%Monaco

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Lorient vs AS Monaco is AS Monaco to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: AS Monaco to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Lorient 1.3, AS Monaco 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lorient to win

29% chancePrice 3.351 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Lorient 30%, the draw 26% and AS Monaco 44%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Monaco the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Lorient took 5 points from their last 5 games and AS Monaco took 13 from 5. AS Monaco come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Lorient won 4 of their last 10 games at home. AS Monaco won 6 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Lorient score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. AS Monaco score 2.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Lorient games and 14 of AS Monaco games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Lorient won 2 and AS Monaco won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended AS Monaco 1, Lorient 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lorientrecent form-1%
Monacorecent form+6%

Lorient form L D W L DMonaco form W D W W WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Lorient vs AS Monaco: AS Monaco shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Lorient host AS Monaco in the Ligue 1 on Sun 18 Oct, 15:15 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat. Our prediction for Lorient vs AS Monaco is AS Monaco to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Lorient form

Lorient have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

AS Monaco form

AS Monaco have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Lorient won 2, AS Monaco won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AS Monaco 1, Lorient 3.

Our call

We expect Lorient to score about 1.3 goals and AS Monaco about 1.6. That points to AS Monaco to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Lorient to win at 3.35.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Lorient	Monaco
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	12
Draws	7	4
Losses	7	4
Goals scored	28	40
Goals conceded	27	29
Scored per game	1.4	2.0
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	4W 3D 3L	6W 1D 2L
Away record	2W 4D 4L	6W 3D 2L
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Both teams scored	55%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Lorient to win	29%	3.41	3.35	-1.9%
A Draw	25%	3.93	3.40	-13.4%
AS Monaco to win	41%	2.42	2.10	-13.2%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.80	-11.9%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	2.26	1.91	-15.4%
Lorient +0.5	51%	1.95	1.67	-14.7%
AS Monaco -0.5	42%	2.38	2.00	-15.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.27
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.82
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.08
Both teams to score	58%	1.72
Lorient or Draw	56%	1.80
AS Monaco or Draw	70%	1.42
Lorient to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.35
AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.48
Lorient clean sheet	20%	4.96
AS Monaco clean sheet	28%	3.58

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%

1-29.2%

0-18.3%

2-17.3%

0-27.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

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Questions people ask

Who will win Lorient vs AS Monaco?

Our prediction for Lorient vs AS Monaco is AS Monaco to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Lorient vs AS Monaco?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Lorient to score 1.3 goals and AS Monaco 1.6.

Will both teams score in Lorient vs AS Monaco?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Lorient last 20 games and 15 of AS Monaco last 20.

How are Lorient playing?

How are AS Monaco playing?

What happened when Lorient and AS Monaco last met?

It ended AS Monaco 1, Lorient 3. In the last 2 meetings Lorient won 2 and AS Monaco won 0.

What is the best bet for Lorient vs AS Monaco?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lorient against Monaco. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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