Quick answer
Our prediction for Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 75% chance. We project Los Angeles Chargers 19.0 and Kansas City Chiefs 25.3. Our best bet is Chiefs to win at -380.
- Prediction
- Kansas City Chiefs to win
- Chance
- 75%
- Projected score
- Los Angeles Chargers 19, Kansas City Chiefs 25
- Projected total
- 44.3 points
- Best bet
- Chiefs to win at -380
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
Chiefs to win
75% chancePrice -3801 unit
⚡ Eagle bold pick
Chargers to win
26% chancePrice +300+3.0% value1 unit
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives Kansas City Chiefs 75% and Los Angeles Chargers 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Kansas City Chiefs the favourite at -380.
- 2
Recent formKansas City Chiefs won 4 of their last 5 and Los Angeles Chargers won 0 of their last 5. Kansas City Chiefs come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayKansas City Chiefs won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Los Angeles Chargers won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
- 4
ScoringKansas City Chiefs score 20.9 points a game and let in 18.7. Los Angeles Chargers score 20.1 and let in 21.6. Their recent games average 39.6 and 41.7 points in total, and the market line is 45.5.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 1 meeting, Kansas City Chiefs won 0 and Los Angeles Chargers won 1. The last one ended Kansas City Chiefs 13, Los Angeles Chargers 16.
- 6
The safest betChiefs to win has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewLos Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs are favourites
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
Kansas City Chiefs host Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL on Sun 18 Oct, 16:25 at Arrowhead Stadium. Our prediction for Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 75% chance. We project Los Angeles Chargers 19.0 and Kansas City Chiefs 25.3. Our best bet is Chiefs to win at -380.
Kansas City Chiefs form
Kansas City Chiefs have 8 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 419 points scored and 374 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.
Los Angeles Chargers form
Los Angeles Chargers have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 402 points scored and 432 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 1 time in our records. Kansas City Chiefs won 0, Los Angeles Chargers won 1. Last time out it finished Kansas City Chiefs 13, Los Angeles Chargers 16.
Our call
We expect Los Angeles Chargers to score about 19.0 points and Kansas City Chiefs about 25.3. That points to Kansas City Chiefs to win. Our safest bet is Chiefs to win at -380. Our bold bet is Chargers to win at +300.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 20 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against DraftKings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Spread and total at every line
Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Chiefs +3.5 wins if Chiefs win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.
Questions people ask
Who will win Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs?
Our prediction for Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs is Kansas City Chiefs to win, with a 75% chance. We project Los Angeles Chargers 19.0 and Kansas City Chiefs 25.3. Our best bet is Chiefs to win at -380.
What is the projected score for Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs?
We project Los Angeles Chargers 19.0 and Kansas City Chiefs 25.3, about 44.3 points in total.
How are Kansas City Chiefs playing?
Kansas City Chiefs have 8 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 419 points scored and 374 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.
How are Los Angeles Chargers playing?
Los Angeles Chargers have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 402 points scored and 432 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.
What happened when Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers last met?
It ended Kansas City Chiefs 13, Los Angeles Chargers 16. In the last 1 meeting Kansas City Chiefs won 0 and Los Angeles Chargers won 1.
What is the best bet for Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs?
Chiefs to win at -380, with a 75% chance.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chiefs against Chargers. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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