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Premier LeagueSat 21 Nov, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Manchester City vs Fulham prediction

Etihad Stadium

Manchester CityHome
2.16 : 1.01
expected goals
FulhamAway
63%Man City
21%Draw
16%Fulham
Eagle safe pickManchester City or Draw
1/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for Manchester City vs Fulham is Manchester City to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Manchester City or Draw at 1/5.

Prediction
Manchester City to win
Chance
63%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Manchester City 2.2, Fulham 1.0
Best bet
Manchester City or Draw at 1/5
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Manchester City or Draw
84% chanceFair price 1/52 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Manchester City to win and Over 2.5
43% chanceFair price 11/81 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Manchester City 63%, the draw 21% and Fulham 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Manchester City the favourite at 2/5.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Manchester City took 4 points from their last 5 games and Fulham took 8 from 5. Fulham come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Manchester City won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Fulham won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Manchester City score 2.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Fulham score 1.0 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Manchester City games and 6 of Fulham games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Manchester City won 2 and Fulham won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Manchester City 3, Fulham 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Manchester City or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Fulhamrecent form+1%
Man City form D W L W LFulham form D D L W WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Manchester City vs Fulham: Manchester City are favourites

The big picture

Manchester City host Fulham in the Premier League on Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 at Etihad Stadium. Our prediction for Manchester City vs Fulham is Manchester City to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Manchester City or Draw at 1/5.

Manchester City form

Manchester City have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Fulham form

Fulham have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Manchester City won 2, Fulham won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Manchester City 3, Fulham 0.

Our call

We expect Manchester City to score about 2.2 goals and Fulham about 1.0. That points to Manchester City to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Manchester City or Draw at 1/5. Our bold bet is Manchester City to win and Over 2.5 at 11/8.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Man CityFulham
Games played2020
Wins136
Draws26
Losses58
Goals scored4620
Goals conceded2522
Scored per game2.31.0
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record7W 1D 3L4W 2D 4L
Away record6W 1D 2L2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets35%35%
Both teams scored60%40%
Over 2.5 goals70%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Manchester City to win59%4/62/5-16.0%
A Draw20%4/14/1-1.6%
Fulham to win15%11/25/1-8.7%
Over 3.5 goals40%6/46/5-11.5%
Under 3.5 goals53%10/118/13-14.1%
Manchester City -1.542%7/5Evens-16.4%
Fulham +1.551%10/114/6-15.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1/5
Over 2.5 goals62%8/13
Over 3.5 goals39%8/5
Both teams to score57%8/11
Manchester City or Draw84%1/5
Fulham or Draw37%7/4
Manchester City to win and Over 2.545%5/4
Fulham to win and Over 2.510%17/2
Manchester City clean sheet36%7/4
Fulham clean sheet12%15/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.9%
2-09.8%
1-19.7%
1-08.5%
3-17.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Manchester City vs Fulham?

Our prediction for Manchester City vs Fulham is Manchester City to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Manchester City or Draw at 1/5.

What is the score prediction for Manchester City vs Fulham?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Manchester City to score 2.2 goals and Fulham 1.0.

Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Fulham?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Manchester City last 20 games and 8 of Fulham last 20.

How are Manchester City playing?

Manchester City have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Fulham playing?

Fulham have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Manchester City and Fulham last met?

It ended Manchester City 3, Fulham 0. In the last 2 meetings Manchester City won 2 and Fulham won 0.

What is the best bet for Manchester City vs Fulham?

Manchester City or Draw at 1/5, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Man City against Fulham. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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