Predictions › United Kingdom › Millwall vs Derby County

ChampionshipSat 31 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Millwall vs Derby County prediction

The Den

MillwallHome

1.77 : 1.24

expected goals

Derby CountyAway

49%Millwall

25%Draw

26%Derby

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Millwall vs Derby County is Millwall to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction: Millwall to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Millwall 1.8, Derby County 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1/42 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Millwall to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 85/401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Millwall 49%, the draw 25% and Derby County 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Millwall took 6 points from their last 5 games and Derby County took 2 from 5. Millwall come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Millwall won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Derby County won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Millwall score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Derby County score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Millwall games and 12 of Derby County games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Millwall won 1 and Derby County won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Millwall 1, Derby County 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Derbyrecent form-3%

Millwall form D L W D DDerby form D L D D LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Millwall vs Derby County: Millwall are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Millwall host Derby County in the Championship on Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 at The Den. Our prediction for Millwall vs Derby County is Millwall to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Millwall form

Millwall have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Derby County form

Derby County have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Millwall won 1, Derby County won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Millwall 1, Derby County 0.

Our call

We expect Millwall to score about 1.8 goals and Derby County about 1.2. That points to Millwall to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Millwall to win and Over 2.5 at 85/40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Millwall	Derby
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	5
Draws	6	3
Losses	6	12
Goals scored	28	22
Goals conceded	24	33
Scored per game	1.4	1.1
Conceded per game	1.2	1.6
Home record	4W 2D 4L	3W 2D 6L
Away record	4W 4D 2L	2W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1/4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	8/11
Over 3.5 goals	35%	9/5
Both teams to score	59%	4/6
Millwall or Draw	74%	4/11
Derby County or Draw	51%	Evens
Millwall to win and Over 2.5	33%	2/1
Derby County to win and Over 2.5	17%	5/1
Millwall clean sheet	29%	12/5
Derby County clean sheet	17%	5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%

2-19.6%

1-08.1%

2-07.8%

1-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Championship

Massive Police Presence Set for Millwall and West Ham Derby

Police are deploying 400 officers and facial recognition technology for the first Dockers Derby in 14 years.

19 Sept 2026

Championship

Millwall and West Ham ready to renew historic London rivalry at The Den

One of English football's most intense rivalries returns this weekend as Millwall host West Ham at The Den for their 100th meeting.

18 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Millwall vs Derby County?

Our prediction for Millwall vs Derby County is Millwall to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Millwall vs Derby County?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Millwall to score 1.8 goals and Derby County 1.2.

Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby County?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Millwall last 20 games and 12 of Derby County last 20.

How are Millwall playing?

How are Derby County playing?

What happened when Millwall and Derby County last met?

It ended Millwall 1, Derby County 0. In the last 2 meetings Millwall won 1 and Derby County won 0.

What is the best bet for Millwall vs Derby County?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Millwall against Derby. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.