Predictions › United Kingdom › Millwall vs Swansea City

ChampionshipTue 13 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Millwall vs Swansea City prediction

The Den

MillwallHome

1.55 : 1.26

expected goals

Swansea CityAway

43%Millwall

26%Draw

30%Swansea

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Millwall vs Swansea City is Millwall to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Millwall to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Millwall 1.6, Swansea City 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Millwall to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 11/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Millwall 43%, the draw 26% and Swansea City 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Millwall took 5 points from their last 5 games and Swansea City took 10 from 5. Swansea City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Millwall won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Swansea City won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Millwall score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Swansea City score 1.5 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Millwall games and 12 of Swansea City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Millwall won 1 and Swansea City won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Millwall 2, Swansea City 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Millwallrecent form-1%
Swansearecent form+3%

Millwall form D D L L WSwansea form W W L D WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Millwall vs Swansea City: Millwall shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Millwall host Swansea City in the Championship on Tue 13 Oct, 19:45 at The Den. Our prediction for Millwall vs Swansea City is Millwall to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Millwall form

Millwall have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Swansea City form

Swansea City have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Millwall won 1, Swansea City won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Millwall 2, Swansea City 1.

Our call

We expect Millwall to score about 1.6 goals and Swansea City about 1.3. That points to Millwall to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Millwall to win and Over 2.5 at 11/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Millwall	Swansea
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	10
Draws	6	5
Losses	6	5
Goals scored	28	30
Goals conceded	24	23
Scored per game	1.4	1.5
Conceded per game	1.2	1.1
Home record	4W 1D 4L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	4W 5D 2L	6W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Both teams scored	45%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	2/7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	10/11
Over 3.5 goals	31%	9/4
Both teams to score	57%	8/11
Millwall or Draw	70%	4/9
Swansea City or Draw	57%	8/11
Millwall to win and Over 2.5	27%	13/5
Swansea City to win and Over 2.5	19%	9/2
Millwall clean sheet	28%	5/2
Swansea City clean sheet	21%	7/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%

2-19.1%

1-08.6%

1-27.4%

2-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Championship

Massive Police Presence Set for Millwall and West Ham Derby

Police are deploying 400 officers and facial recognition technology for the first Dockers Derby in 14 years.

19 Sept 2026

Championship

Millwall and West Ham ready to renew historic London rivalry at The Den

One of English football's most intense rivalries returns this weekend as Millwall host West Ham at The Den for their 100th meeting.

18 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Millwall vs Swansea City?

Our prediction for Millwall vs Swansea City is Millwall to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Millwall vs Swansea City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Millwall to score 1.6 goals and Swansea City 1.3.

Will both teams score in Millwall vs Swansea City?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Millwall last 20 games and 11 of Swansea City last 20.

How are Millwall playing?

How are Swansea City playing?

What happened when Millwall and Swansea City last met?

It ended Millwall 2, Swansea City 1. In the last 2 meetings Millwall won 1 and Swansea City won 0.

What is the best bet for Millwall vs Swansea City?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Millwall against Swansea. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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