Predictions › United Kingdom › Motherwell vs Celtic

Scottish PremiershipSun 11 Oct, 12:00 United Kingdom time

Motherwell vs Celtic prediction

Fir Park

MotherwellHome

1.32 : 2.00

expected goals

CelticAway

25%Motherwell

23%Draw

53%Celtic

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for Motherwell vs Celtic is Celtic to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

Prediction: Celtic to win
Chance: 53%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Motherwell 1.3, Celtic 2.0
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/5
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1/52 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Celtic to win and Over 2.5

37% chanceFair price 7/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Motherwell 25%, the draw 23% and Celtic 53%. The bookmakers agree and make Celtic the favourite at 4/7.
2
Recent form
Motherwell took 4 points from their last 5 games and Celtic took 9 from 5. Celtic come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Motherwell won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Celtic won 8 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Motherwell score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.4. Celtic score 2.0 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Motherwell games and 14 of Celtic games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 4 meetings, Motherwell won 1 and Celtic won 3 with 0 draws. The last one ended Motherwell 2, Celtic 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Motherwellrecent form-3%
Celticrecent form-1%

Motherwell form L L L W DCeltic form L L L W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Motherwell vs Celtic: Celtic are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Motherwell host Celtic in the Scottish Premiership on Sun 11 Oct, 12:00 at Fir Park. Our prediction for Motherwell vs Celtic is Celtic to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

Motherwell form

Motherwell have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Celtic form

Celtic have 16 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Motherwell won 1, Celtic won 3 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Motherwell 2, Celtic 3.

Our call

We expect Motherwell to score about 1.3 goals and Celtic about 2.0. That points to Celtic to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5. Our bold bet is Celtic to win and Over 2.5 at 7/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Motherwell	Celtic
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	16
Draws	4	1
Losses	9	3
Goals scored	30	40
Goals conceded	29	20
Scored per game	1.5	2.0
Conceded per game	1.4	1.0
Home record	3W 3D 3L	8W 0D 2L
Away record	4W 1D 6L	8W 1D 1L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Motherwell to win	24%	10/3	7/2	+8.0%
A Draw	22%	7/2	7/2	+0.7%
Celtic to win	50%	Evens	4/7	-22.0%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	7/5	21/20	-15.5%
Under 3.5 goals	53%	10/11	4/6	-13.0%
Motherwell +0.5	40%	6/4	5/4	-10.3%
Celtic -0.5	54%	5/6	8/15	-17.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	2/11
Over 2.5 goals	64%	8/15
Over 3.5 goals	42%	11/8
Both teams to score	64%	4/7
Motherwell or Draw	47%	11/10
Celtic or Draw	75%	1/3
Motherwell to win and Over 2.5	17%	5/1
Celtic to win and Over 2.5	39%	8/5
Motherwell clean sheet	14%	13/2
Celtic clean sheet	27%	11/4

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.1%

1-29.5%

0-27.2%

0-16.7%

1-36.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Scottish Premiership

Rangers Close The Gap At The Top With Derby Win Over Celtic

Ryan Naderi scored the only goal as Rangers beat Celtic 1-0 at Celtic Park to move within two points of the top of the table.

20 Sept 2026

Scottish Premiership

Celtic Target Revenge Against In-Form Rangers at Celtic Park

Celtic look to bounce back from consecutive defeats as they host rivals Rangers in a massive Scottish Premiership clash this Sunday.

18 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Motherwell vs Celtic?

Our prediction for Motherwell vs Celtic is Celtic to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

What is the score prediction for Motherwell vs Celtic?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Motherwell to score 1.3 goals and Celtic 2.0.

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Celtic?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Motherwell last 20 games and 13 of Celtic last 20.

How are Motherwell playing?

How are Celtic playing?

What happened when Motherwell and Celtic last met?

It ended Motherwell 2, Celtic 3. In the last 4 meetings Motherwell won 1 and Celtic won 3.

What is the best bet for Motherwell vs Celtic?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/5, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Motherwell against Celtic. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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