Predictions › Italy › Napoli vs AS Roma

Serie ASat 24 Oct, 16:00 Italy time

Napoli vs AS Roma prediction

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

NapoliHome

1.24 : 1.38

expected goals

AS RomaAway

33%Napoli

28%Draw

39%AS Roma

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Napoli vs AS Roma is AS Roma to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction: AS Roma to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Napoli 1.2, AS Roma 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Napoli 33%, the draw 28% and AS Roma 39%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Roma the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
Napoli took 7 points from their last 5 games and AS Roma took 9 from 5. AS Roma come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Napoli won 7 of their last 11 games at home. AS Roma won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Napoli score 1.5 goals a game and let in 0.9. AS Roma score 2.0 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Napoli games and 11 of AS Roma games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Napoli won 1 and AS Roma won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Napoli 2, AS Roma 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Napolirecent form+1%
AS Romarecent form+3%
Napolirest between games-5%

Napoli form D W D W LAS Roma form D D W D WHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Napoli vs AS Roma: AS Roma shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Napoli host AS Roma in the Serie A on Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Our prediction for Napoli vs AS Roma is AS Roma to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Napoli form

Napoli have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, L, newest first.

AS Roma form

AS Roma have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Napoli won 1, AS Roma won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Napoli 2, AS Roma 2.

Our call

We expect Napoli to score about 1.2 goals and AS Roma about 1.4. That points to AS Roma to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Napoli	AS Roma
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	11
Draws	3	5
Losses	6	4
Goals scored	30	41
Goals conceded	19	21
Scored per game	1.5	2.0
Conceded per game	0.9	1.1
Home record	7W 0D 4L	6W 2D 1L
Away record	4W 3D 2L	5W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	45%	50%
Both teams scored	45%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Napoli to win	31%	3.18	2.75	-13.5%
A Draw	26%	3.86	3.30	-14.6%
AS Roma to win	39%	2.56	2.25	-12.1%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.08	1.80	-13.4%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	2.10	1.87	-10.8%
Napoli +0.5	55%	1.82	1.54	-15.5%
AS Roma -0.5	41%	2.45	2.20	-10.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.34
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.05
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.72
Both teams to score	54%	1.85
Napoli or Draw	61%	1.65
AS Roma or Draw	67%	1.49
Napoli to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.22
AS Roma to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.34
Napoli clean sheet	25%	3.96
AS Roma clean sheet	29%	3.47

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%

0-19.3%

1-28.6%

1-08.3%

0-08.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

LaLiga

Real Madrid Eye Scott McTominay as Napoli Contract Talks Stall

Real Madrid are monitoring Scott McTominay while Chelsea eye Frenkie de Jong ahead of the January transfer window.

9 Oct 2026

Premier League

Chelsea prepare new January bid for Roma midfielder Manu Kone

Chelsea are ready to renew their interest in Roma midfielder Manu Kone, while Liverpool and Manchester United eye other major targets.

13 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?

Our prediction for Napoli vs AS Roma is AS Roma to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Napoli vs AS Roma?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Napoli to score 1.2 goals and AS Roma 1.4.

Will both teams score in Napoli vs AS Roma?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Napoli last 20 games and 10 of AS Roma last 20.

How are Napoli playing?

How are AS Roma playing?

What happened when Napoli and AS Roma last met?

It ended Napoli 2, AS Roma 2. In the last 2 meetings Napoli won 1 and AS Roma won 0.

What is the best bet for Napoli vs AS Roma?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Napoli against AS Roma. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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