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Predictions › Italy › Napoli vs Lazio
Serie ASun 8 Nov, 11:30 Italy time

Napoli vs Lazio prediction

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

NapoliHome
0.97 : 1.44
expected goals
LazioAway
25%Napoli
28%Draw
47%Lazio
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Napoli vs Lazio is Lazio to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Lazio to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Napoli 1.0, Lazio 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lazio to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.961 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Napoli 25%, the draw 28% and Lazio 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Napoli took 7 points from their last 5 games and Lazio took 15 from 5. Lazio come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Napoli won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Lazio won 8 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Napoli score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.2. Lazio score 1.9 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Napoli games and 11 of Lazio games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Napoli won 1 and Lazio won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Napoli 0, Lazio 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Napolirecent form-1%
  • Laziorecent form+6%
  • Napolirest between games-5%
  • Laziorest between games-5%
  • Napoliteam news-2%
Napoli form D D W L LLazio form D W W W WHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Napoli vs Lazio: Lazio are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Napoli host Lazio in the Serie A on Sun 8 Nov, 11:30 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Our prediction for Napoli vs Lazio is Lazio to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Napoli form

Napoli have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Lazio form

Lazio have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Napoli won 1, Lazio won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Napoli 0, Lazio 2.

Our call

We expect Napoli to score about 1.0 goals and Lazio about 1.4. That points to Lazio to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Lazio to win and Over 2.5 at 3.96.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NapoliLazio
Games played2020
Wins914
Draws43
Losses73
Goals scored3437
Goals conceded2420
Scored per game1.71.9
Conceded per game1.21.0
Home record6W 1D 4L6W 3D 1L
Away record3W 3D 3L8W 0D 2L
Clean sheets40%35%
Both teams scored45%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.42
Over 2.5 goals43%2.31
Over 3.5 goals22%4.46
Both teams to score48%2.08
Napoli or Draw53%1.90
Lazio or Draw75%1.33
Napoli to win and Over 2.512%8.03
Lazio to win and Over 2.526%3.88
Napoli clean sheet24%4.23
Lazio clean sheet38%2.64

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
0-112.2%
0-09.7%
0-29.3%
1-29.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Serie A

Napoli Appeal Allegri Two Game Ban After Roma Draw

Napoli will appeal Massimiliano Allegri's two match ban following his red card in the 3-3 draw with Roma.

26 Oct 2026
LaLiga

Real Madrid Eye Scott McTominay as Napoli Contract Talks Stall

Real Madrid are monitoring Scott McTominay while Chelsea eye Frenkie de Jong ahead of the January transfer window.

9 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Napoli vs Lazio?

Our prediction for Napoli vs Lazio is Lazio to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Napoli vs Lazio?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Napoli to score 1.0 goals and Lazio 1.4.

Will both teams score in Napoli vs Lazio?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Napoli last 20 games and 10 of Lazio last 20.

How are Napoli playing?

Napoli have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Lazio playing?

Lazio have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Napoli and Lazio last met?

It ended Napoli 0, Lazio 2. In the last 2 meetings Napoli won 1 and Lazio won 1.

What is the best bet for Napoli vs Lazio?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Napoli against Lazio. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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