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Predictions › United States › New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
NFLSun 4 Oct, 13:00 United States time

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills prediction

Highmark Stadium

New England PatriotsAway
20.6 : 27.6
projected points
Buffalo BillsHome
26%Patriots
74%Bills
Eagle safe pickBills to win
-305

Quick answer

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills is Buffalo Bills to win, with a 74% chance. We project New England Patriots 20.6 and Buffalo Bills 27.6. Our best bet is Bills to win at -305.

Prediction
Buffalo Bills to win
Chance
74%
Projected score
New England Patriots 21, Buffalo Bills 28
Projected total
48.2 points
Best bet
Bills to win at -305

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bills to win
74% chancePrice -3051 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Buffalo Bills 74% and New England Patriots 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Buffalo Bills the favourite at -305.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Buffalo Bills won 5 of their last 5 and New England Patriots won 2 of their last 5. Buffalo Bills come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Buffalo Bills won 8 of their last 9 games at home. New England Patriots won 5 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Buffalo Bills score 28.7 points a game and let in 21.8. New England Patriots score 23.1 and let in 18.2. Their recent games average 50.5 and 41.3 points in total, and the market line is 48.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Buffalo Bills won 1 and New England Patriots won 1. The last one ended New England Patriots 31, Buffalo Bills 35.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Bills to win has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Billsrest between games-5%
  • Patriotsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: Buffalo Bills are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Buffalo Bills host New England Patriots in the NFL on Sun 4 Oct, 13:00 at Highmark Stadium. Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills is Buffalo Bills to win, with a 74% chance. We project New England Patriots 20.6 and Buffalo Bills 27.6. Our best bet is Bills to win at -305.

Buffalo Bills form

Buffalo Bills have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 574 points scored and 435 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

New England Patriots form

New England Patriots have 14 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 462 points scored and 364 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Buffalo Bills won 1, New England Patriots won 1. Last time out it finished New England Patriots 31, Buffalo Bills 35.

Our call

We expect New England Patriots to score about 20.6 points and Buffalo Bills about 27.6. That points to Buffalo Bills to win. Our safest bet is Bills to win at -305.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BillsPatriots
Games played2020
Wins1514
Losses55
Points scored574462
Points conceded435364
Scored per game28.723.1
Conceded per game21.818.2
Home record8W 1L9W 2L
Away record7W 4L5W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Bills to win74%-281-305-2.1%
Patriots to win27%+267+245-6.1%
Bills -747%+113-105-8.2%
Patriots +747%+114-115-12.6%
Over 48.5 points46%+118-110-12.3%
Under 48.5 points48%+109-110-8.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Bills spreadCoversFair
Bills -14.529%+244
Bills -10.540%+151
Bills -7.549%+106
Bills -4.557%-135
Bills -0.569%-219
Total pointsOverUnder
41.570%30%
45.558%42%
48.549%51%
51.540%60%
55.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Bills +3.5 wins if Bills win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Buffalo Bills Survive Five Turnovers to Beat Chargers 24-16

Despite committing five turnovers, the Buffalo Bills improved to 3-0 with a gritty 24-16 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

9 hours ago
NFL

Drake Maye Vows to Turn Things Around After Patriots Blowout Loss to Jaguars

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye took responsibility for his three turnovers in a heavy 35-6 loss to the Jaguars, calling his play unacceptable.

13 hours ago
NFL

Patriots Target Halftime Clock Issues Before Tough Road Tests

New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Drake Maye are working to fix critical clock management mistakes before halftime.

24 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills?

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills is Buffalo Bills to win, with a 74% chance. We project New England Patriots 20.6 and Buffalo Bills 27.6. Our best bet is Bills to win at -305.

What is the projected score for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills?

We project New England Patriots 20.6 and Buffalo Bills 27.6, about 48.2 points in total.

How are Buffalo Bills playing?

Buffalo Bills have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 574 points scored and 435 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are New England Patriots playing?

New England Patriots have 14 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 462 points scored and 364 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots last met?

It ended New England Patriots 31, Buffalo Bills 35. In the last 2 meetings Buffalo Bills won 1 and New England Patriots won 1.

What is the best bet for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills?

Bills to win at -305, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bills against Patriots. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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