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Predictions › United States › New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears
NFLThu 22 Oct, 20:15 United States time

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears prediction

Soldier Field

New England PatriotsAway
21.6 : 24.7
projected points
Chicago BearsHome
49%Patriots
51%Bears
Eagle safe pickBears +5.5
-294

Quick answer

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears is Chicago Bears to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project New England Patriots 21.6 and Chicago Bears 24.7. Our best bet is Bears +5.5 at -294.

Prediction
Chicago Bears to win
Chance
51%
Projected score
New England Patriots 22, Chicago Bears 25
Projected total
46.3 points
Best bet
Bears +5.5 at -294

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bears +5.5
75% chanceFair price -2941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chicago Bears 51% and New England Patriots 49%. The bookmakers agree and make Chicago Bears the favourite at -122.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chicago Bears won 3 of their last 5 and New England Patriots won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chicago Bears won 8 of their last 11 games at home. New England Patriots won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Chicago Bears score 25.4 points a game and let in 21.3. New England Patriots score 24.0 and let in 18.6. Their recent games average 46.6 and 42.5 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Bears +5.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bearsrest between games-5%
  • Patriotsrest between games-5%
  • Bearsteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chicago Bears host New England Patriots in the NFL on Thu 22 Oct, 20:15 at Soldier Field. Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears is Chicago Bears to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project New England Patriots 21.6 and Chicago Bears 24.7. Our best bet is Bears +5.5 at -294.

Chicago Bears form

Chicago Bears have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 507 points scored and 425 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

New England Patriots form

New England Patriots have 14 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 480 points scored and 371 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect New England Patriots to score about 21.6 points and Chicago Bears about 24.7. That points to Chicago Bears to win. Our safest bet is Bears +5.5 at -294.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BearsPatriots
Games played2020
Wins1314
Losses75
Points scored507480
Points conceded425371
Scored per game25.424.0
Conceded per game21.318.6
Home record8W 3L8W 2L
Away record5W 4L6W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Bears to win51%-106-122-6.5%
Patriots to win44%+128+102-11.3%
Bears -1.551%-106-110-1.7%
Patriots +1.544%+128-110-16.4%
Over 47.5 points45%+124-110-14.9%
Under 47.5 points51%-103-110-3.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Bears spreadCoversFair
Bears -10.529%+242
Bears -6.540%+149
Bears -3.549%+104
Bears -0.558%-137
Bears +3.569%-221
Total pointsOverUnder
39.570%30%
43.558%42%
46.549%51%
49.540%60%
53.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Bears +3.5 wins if Bears win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Bears Weigh Quarterback Options for Falcons Game

Ben Johnson is evaluating his quarterbacks before the Falcons game while Caleb Williams recovers from a hamstring injury.

6 hours ago
NFL

NFL Legend and Hall of Fame Coach Mike Ditka Dies at 86

Mike Ditka, the legendary Chicago Bears coach and Hall of Fame tight end, has passed away at the age of 86.

9 Oct 2026
NFL

Kyle Monangai and Chuba Hubbard Lead Strong Week for African RBs

Kyle Monangai and Chuba Hubbard delivered big games as players with African heritage made their mark across the NFL.

7 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears?

Our prediction for New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears is Chicago Bears to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project New England Patriots 21.6 and Chicago Bears 24.7. Our best bet is Bears +5.5 at -294.

What is the projected score for New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears?

We project New England Patriots 21.6 and Chicago Bears 24.7, about 46.3 points in total.

How are Chicago Bears playing?

Chicago Bears have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 507 points scored and 425 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are New England Patriots playing?

New England Patriots have 14 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 480 points scored and 371 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears?

Bears +5.5 at -294, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bears against Patriots. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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