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Predictions › United States › New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
MLBFri 25 Sept, 18:45 United States time

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals prediction

Nationals Park

New York MetsAway
5.2 : 4.9
projected runs
Washington NationalsHome
56%Mets
44%Nationals
Eagle safe pickUnder 12.5 runs
-261

Quick answer

Our prediction for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals is New York Mets to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Mets 5.2 and Washington Nationals 4.9. Our best bet is Under 12.5 runs at -261.

Prediction
New York Mets to win
Chance
56%
Projected score
New York Mets 5, Washington Nationals 5
Projected total
10.1 runs
Best bet
Under 12.5 runs at -261

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 12.5 runs
72% chanceFair price -2611 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Nationals to win
44% chanceFair price +1271 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Washington Nationals 44% and New York Mets 56%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Washington Nationals won 3 of their last 5 and New York Mets won 2 of their last 5. Washington Nationals come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Washington Nationals won 9 of their last 13 games at home. New York Mets won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Washington Nationals score 4.6 runs a game and let in 5.2. New York Mets score 5.0 and let in 4.8. Their recent games average 9.8 and 9.7 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Washington Nationals won 1 and New York Mets won 4. The last one ended New York Mets 4, Washington Nationals 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 12.5 runs has a 72% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nationalsrest between games-2%
  • Metsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals: New York Mets shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Washington Nationals host New York Mets in the MLB on Fri 25 Sept, 18:45 at Nationals Park. Our prediction for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals is New York Mets to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Mets 5.2 and Washington Nationals 4.9. Our best bet is Under 12.5 runs at -261.

Washington Nationals form

Washington Nationals have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 92 runs scored and 103 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 4 losses from 13. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

New York Mets form

New York Mets have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 99 runs scored and 95 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Washington Nationals won 1, New York Mets won 4. Last time out it finished New York Mets 4, Washington Nationals 3.

Our call

We expect New York Mets to score about 5.2 runs and Washington Nationals about 4.9. That points to New York Mets to win. Our safest bet is Under 12.5 runs at -261. Our bold bet is Nationals to win at +127.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NationalsMets
Games played2020
Wins910
Losses1110
Runs scored9299
Runs conceded10395
Scored per game4.65.0
Conceded per game5.24.8
Home record9W 4L4W 6L
Away record0W 7L6W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Nationals spreadCoversFair
Nationals -1.533%+203
Nationals -0.542%+138
Nationals +0.551%-106
Nationals +1.561%-155
Nationals +2.570%-229
Total runsOverUnder
8.564%36%
9.556%44%
10.547%53%
11.538%62%
12.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Nationals +3.5 wins if Nationals win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Schlittler Lowers ERA to 1.95 as Yankees Shut Out Mets

Cam Schlittler threw six scoreless innings against the Mets, dropping his ERA to 1.95 and sparking Cy Young and MVP discussion.

13 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win New York Mets vs Washington Nationals?

Our prediction for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals is New York Mets to win, with a 56% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Mets 5.2 and Washington Nationals 4.9. Our best bet is Under 12.5 runs at -261.

What is the projected score for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals?

We project New York Mets 5.2 and Washington Nationals 4.9, about 10.1 runs in total.

How are Washington Nationals playing?

Washington Nationals have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 92 runs scored and 103 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 4 losses from 13. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are New York Mets playing?

New York Mets have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 99 runs scored and 95 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Washington Nationals and New York Mets last met?

It ended New York Mets 4, Washington Nationals 3. In the last 5 meetings Washington Nationals won 1 and New York Mets won 4.

What is the best bet for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals?

Under 12.5 runs at -261, with a 72% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nationals against Mets. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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