Predictions › United Kingdom › Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Premier LeagueSat 17 Oct, 17:30 United Kingdom time

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction

St. James' Park

Newcastle UnitedHome

1.78 : 1.39

expected goals

Aston VillaAway

46%Newcastle

24%Draw

29%Aston Villa

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa is Newcastle United to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction: Newcastle United to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Newcastle United 1.8, Aston Villa 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1/42 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Newcastle United to win and Over 2.5

32% chanceFair price 85/401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Newcastle United 46%, the draw 24% and Aston Villa 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Newcastle United the favourite at 21/20.
2
Recent form
Newcastle United took 10 points from their last 5 games and Aston Villa took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Newcastle United won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Aston Villa won 6 of their last 12 on the road.
4
Goals
Newcastle United score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.8. Aston Villa score 2.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Newcastle United games and 14 of Aston Villa games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Newcastle United won 1 and Aston Villa won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Aston Villa 1, Newcastle United 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Newcastlerecent form+3%
Aston Villarecent form+3%

Newcastle form W L W D WAston Villa form W W L W DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: Newcastle United are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Newcastle United host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 at St. James' Park. Our prediction for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa is Newcastle United to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Newcastle United form

Newcastle United have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Aston Villa form

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Newcastle United won 1, Aston Villa won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Aston Villa 1, Newcastle United 3.

Our call

We expect Newcastle United to score about 1.8 goals and Aston Villa about 1.4. That points to Newcastle United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Newcastle United to win and Over 2.5 at 85/40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Newcastle	Aston Villa
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	11
Draws	4	3
Losses	8	6
Goals scored	30	40
Goals conceded	35	26
Scored per game	1.5	2.0
Conceded per game	1.8	1.3
Home record	5W 3D 3L	5W 0D 3L
Away record	3W 1D 5L	6W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	15%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Newcastle United to win	43%	11/8	21/20	-11.8%
A Draw	24%	3/1	11/4	-11.0%
Aston Villa to win	29%	12/5	11/5	-6.7%
Over 2.5 goals	56%	4/5	4/7	-11.7%
Under 2.5 goals	38%	13/8	5/4	-13.8%
Newcastle United -0.5	43%	11/8	10/11	-15.7%
Aston Villa +0.5	50%	Evens	4/6	-15.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1/5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	8/13
Over 3.5 goals	39%	8/5
Both teams to score	63%	4/7
Newcastle United or Draw	71%	2/5
Aston Villa or Draw	54%	5/6
Newcastle United to win and Over 2.5	33%	85/40
Aston Villa to win and Over 2.5	20%	4/1
Newcastle United clean sheet	25%	3/1
Aston Villa clean sheet	17%	5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%

2-19.3%

1-27.2%

1-06.9%

2-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Unai Emery rescues the historic Spanish club close to his heart

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery and his family stepped in to save Real Union, a historic Spanish club with deep family roots.

2 Oct 2026

Premier League

Why Lewis Hall chose Newcastle stay over Manchester United transfer

Newcastle defender Lewis Hall says signing a new contract was a no brainer despite summer transfer interest from Manchester United.

22 Sept 2026

Premier League

Big Matches Head Saturday Lineup Before International Break

European leagues prepare for a packed Saturday of matches as Tottenham, Aston Villa, and other top clubs seek big wins before the international break.

19 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Our prediction for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa is Newcastle United to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Newcastle United to score 1.8 goals and Aston Villa 1.4.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Newcastle United last 20 games and 11 of Aston Villa last 20.

How are Newcastle United playing?

How are Aston Villa playing?

What happened when Newcastle United and Aston Villa last met?

It ended Aston Villa 1, Newcastle United 3. In the last 2 meetings Newcastle United won 1 and Aston Villa won 1.

What is the best bet for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Newcastle against Aston Villa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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