Predictions › Italy › Parma vs Torino

Serie AMon 19 Oct, 18:45 Italy time

Parma vs Torino prediction

Ennio Tardini

ParmaHome

1.09 : 1.17

expected goals

TorinoAway

33%Parma

30%Draw

37%Torino

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Parma vs Torino is Torino to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Torino to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Parma 1.1, Torino 1.2
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.091 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Parma 33%, the draw 30% and Torino 37%. The bookmakers agree and make Torino the favourite at 2.35.
2
Recent form
Parma took 4 points from their last 5 games and Torino took 4 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Parma won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Torino won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Parma score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Torino score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Parma games and 14 of Torino games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Parma won 1 and Torino won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Torino 4, Parma 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Parmarecent form-3%
Torinorecent form-3%

Parma form W L D L LTorino form D L W L LHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Parma vs Torino: Torino shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Parma host Torino in the Serie A on Mon 19 Oct, 18:45 at Ennio Tardini. Our prediction for Parma vs Torino is Torino to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Parma form

Parma have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Torino form

Torino have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Parma won 1, Torino won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Torino 4, Parma 1.

Our call

We expect Parma to score about 1.1 goals and Torino about 1.2. That points to Torino to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.09.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Parma	Torino
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	6
Draws	5	5
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	17	27
Goals conceded	23	31
Scored per game	0.8	1.4
Conceded per game	1.1	1.6
Home record	4W 3D 3L	4W 2D 3L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	2W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	15%
Both teams scored	45%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	25%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Parma to win	31%	3.20	2.95	-7.8%
A Draw	29%	3.46	2.95	-14.8%
Torino to win	35%	2.87	2.35	-18.0%
Over 2.5 goals	38%	2.65	2.30	-13.3%
Under 2.5 goals	56%	1.79	1.56	-13.2%
Parma +0.5	57%	1.75	1.51	-13.5%
Torino -0.5	37%	2.71	2.25	-16.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	67%	1.50
Over 2.5 goals	39%	2.54
Over 3.5 goals	19%	5.18
Both teams to score	47%	2.14
Parma or Draw	63%	1.59
Torino or Draw	67%	1.49
Parma to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.20
Torino to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.44
Parma clean sheet	31%	3.23
Torino clean sheet	34%	2.98

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%

0-111.4%

0-011.2%

1-010.6%

1-27.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Serie A

Parma Dismiss Manager Carlos Cuesta After Slow Start to Serie A Season

Parma have parted ways with head coach Carlos Cuesta after winning just one of their opening five league matches this season.

27 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Parma vs Torino?

Our prediction for Parma vs Torino is Torino to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Parma vs Torino?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Parma to score 1.1 goals and Torino 1.2.

Will both teams score in Parma vs Torino?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Parma last 20 games and 14 of Torino last 20.

How are Parma playing?

How are Torino playing?

What happened when Parma and Torino last met?

It ended Torino 4, Parma 1. In the last 2 meetings Parma won 1 and Torino won 1.

What is the best bet for Parma vs Torino?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Parma against Torino. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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