Predictions › Italy › Parma vs Udinese
Serie AWed 28 Oct, 17:30 Italy time

Parma vs Udinese prediction

Ennio Tardini

ParmaHome
1.34 : 1.41
expected goals
UdineseAway
35%Parma
27%Draw
38%Udinese
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Parma vs Udinese is Udinese to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Udinese to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Parma 1.3, Udinese 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.821 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Parma 35%, the draw 27% and Udinese 38%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Parma took 4 points from their last 5 games and Udinese took 0 from 5. Parma come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Parma won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Udinese won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Parma score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Udinese score 1.3 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Parma games and 9 of Udinese games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Parma won 1 and Udinese won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Udinese 0, Parma 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Parmarecent form-1%
  • Udineserecent form-6%
  • Udineserest between games-5%
Parma form D W L D LUdinese form D L L L LHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Parma vs Udinese: Udinese shade it

The big picture

Parma host Udinese in the Serie A on Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 at Ennio Tardini. Our prediction for Parma vs Udinese is Udinese to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Parma form

Parma have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Udinese form

Udinese have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Parma won 1, Udinese won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Udinese 0, Parma 1.

Our call

We expect Parma to score about 1.3 goals and Udinese about 1.4. That points to Udinese to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.82.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ParmaUdinese
Games played2020
Wins66
Draws54
Losses910
Goals scored1626
Goals conceded2626
Scored per game0.81.3
Conceded per game1.31.3
Home record4W 3D 3L2W 2D 6L
Away record2W 2D 6L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored45%35%
Over 2.5 goals30%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.93
Over 3.5 goals30%3.36
Both teams to score57%1.77
Parma or Draw62%1.62
Udinese or Draw65%1.54
Parma to win and Over 2.521%4.68
Udinese to win and Over 2.523%4.26
Parma clean sheet24%4.10
Udinese clean sheet26%3.82

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%
1-28.5%
0-18.3%
2-18.1%
1-07.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Parma vs Udinese?

Our prediction for Parma vs Udinese is Udinese to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Parma vs Udinese?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Parma to score 1.3 goals and Udinese 1.4.

Will both teams score in Parma vs Udinese?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Parma last 20 games and 7 of Udinese last 20.

How are Parma playing?

Parma have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Udinese playing?

Udinese have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Parma and Udinese last met?

It ended Udinese 0, Parma 1. In the last 2 meetings Parma won 1 and Udinese won 1.

What is the best bet for Parma vs Udinese?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Parma against Udinese. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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