Predictions › United States › Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines

College FootballSat 17 Oct, 00:00 United States time

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines prediction

Michigan Stadium

Penn State Nittany LionsAway

22.2 : 28.7

projected points

Michigan WolverinesHome

29%Penn State

71%Michigan

Eagle safe pickMichigan to win

-270

Quick answer

Our prediction for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines is Michigan Wolverines to win, with a 71% chance. We project Penn State Nittany Lions 22.2 and Michigan Wolverines 28.7. Our best bet is Michigan to win at -270.

Prediction: Michigan Wolverines to win
Chance: 71%
Projected score: Penn State Nittany Lions 22, Michigan Wolverines 29
Projected total: 50.9 points
Best bet: Michigan to win at -270

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Michigan to win

71% chancePrice -2701 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Penn State to win

31% chancePrice +2201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Michigan Wolverines 71% and Penn State Nittany Lions 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Michigan Wolverines the favourite at -270.
2
Recent form
Michigan Wolverines won 3 of their last 5 and Penn State Nittany Lions won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Michigan Wolverines won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Penn State Nittany Lions won 4 of their last 8 on the road.
4
Scoring
Michigan Wolverines score 26.6 points a game and let in 18.9. Penn State Nittany Lions score 30.2 and let in 21.0. Their recent games average 45.6 and 51.2 points in total, and the market line is 51.5.
5
The safest bet
Michigan to win has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines: Michigan Wolverines are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Michigan Wolverines host Penn State Nittany Lions in the College Football on Sat 17 Oct, 00:00 at Michigan Stadium. Our prediction for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines is Michigan Wolverines to win, with a 71% chance. We project Penn State Nittany Lions 22.2 and Michigan Wolverines 28.7. Our best bet is Michigan to win at -270.

Michigan Wolverines form

Michigan Wolverines have 11 wins and 5 losses in their last 16 games, with 426 points scored and 303 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Penn State Nittany Lions form

Penn State Nittany Lions have 8 wins and 8 losses in their last 16 games, with 483 points scored and 336 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Penn State Nittany Lions to score about 22.2 points and Michigan Wolverines about 28.7. That points to Michigan Wolverines to win. Our safest bet is Michigan to win at -270. Our bold bet is Penn State to win at +220.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 16 games in all competitions.

	Michigan	Penn State
Games played	16	16
Wins	11	8
Losses	5	8
Points scored	426	483
Points conceded	303	336
Scored per game	26.6	30.2
Conceded per game	18.9	21.0
Home record	7W 2L	4W 4L
Away record	4W 3L	4W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Michigan to win	71%	-244	-270	-2.8%
Penn State to win	31%	+225	+220	-1.6%
Michigan -6.5	47%	+114	-112	-11.7%
Penn State +6.5	47%	+115	-108	-10.2%
Over 51.5 points	45%	+121	-108	-12.9%
Under 51.5 points	48%	+108	-112	-9.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Michigan spread	Covers	Fair
Michigan -13.5	33%	+202
Michigan -9.5	43%	+135
Michigan -6.5	50%	-100
Michigan -3.5	57%	-135
Michigan +0.5	67%	-202

Total points	Over	Under
43.5	68%	32%
47.5	58%	42%
50.5	51%	49%
53.5	44%	56%
57.5	34%	66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Michigan +3.5 wins if Michigan win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news

College Football

Northwestern Dominates Penn State in Historic Ryan Field Opener

Northwestern celebrated their new stadium with a dominant 34-13 victory over Penn State, led by a massive rushing performance.

3 Oct 2026

College Football

Whittingham Seeks Better Focus From Young Michigan Squad

Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham wants more consistency and energy from his young team as they prepare to face a tough Iowa defense.

21 Sept 2026

College Football

Michigan Tackle Andrew Babalola Sidelined Again After Knee Injury Setback

Michigan offensive lineman Andrew Babalola is facing a longer wait for his Wolverines debut after suffering a setback with his knee recovery.

14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines?

What is the projected score for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines?

We project Penn State Nittany Lions 22.2 and Michigan Wolverines 28.7, about 50.9 points in total.

How are Michigan Wolverines playing?

How are Penn State Nittany Lions playing?

What is the best bet for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines?

Michigan to win at -270, with a 71% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Michigan against Penn State. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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