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Predictions › United States › Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
MLBThu 1 Oct, 14:00 United States time

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves prediction

Truist Park

Philadelphia PhilliesAway
3.7 : 4.7
projected runs
Atlanta BravesHome
42%Phillies
58%Braves
Eagle safe pickPhillies +3.5
-286

Quick answer

Our prediction for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves is Atlanta Braves to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project Philadelphia Phillies 3.7 and Atlanta Braves 4.7. Our best bet is Phillies +3.5 at -286.

Prediction
Atlanta Braves to win
Chance
58%
Projected score
Philadelphia Phillies 4, Atlanta Braves 5
Projected total
8.4 runs
Best bet
Phillies +3.5 at -286

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Phillies +3.5
74% chanceFair price -2861 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Phillies to win
37% chanceFair price +1721 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlanta Braves 58% and Philadelphia Phillies 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlanta Braves won 2 of their last 5 and Philadelphia Phillies won 1 of their last 5. Atlanta Braves come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlanta Braves won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Philadelphia Phillies won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Atlanta Braves score 4.1 runs a game and let in 4.3. Philadelphia Phillies score 3.8 and let in 4.8. Their recent games average 8.3 and 8.6 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Atlanta Braves won 3 and Philadelphia Phillies won 2. The last one ended Atlanta Braves 4, Philadelphia Phillies 9.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Phillies +3.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bravesrest between games-5%
  • Philliesrest between games-5%
  • Philliesteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Atlanta Braves shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlanta Braves host Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB on Thu 1 Oct, 14:00 at Truist Park. Our prediction for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves is Atlanta Braves to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project Philadelphia Phillies 3.7 and Atlanta Braves 4.7. Our best bet is Phillies +3.5 at -286.

Atlanta Braves form

Atlanta Braves have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 82 runs scored and 85 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Philadelphia Phillies form

Philadelphia Phillies have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 76 runs scored and 96 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Atlanta Braves won 3, Philadelphia Phillies won 2. Last time out it finished Atlanta Braves 4, Philadelphia Phillies 9.

Our call

We expect Philadelphia Phillies to score about 3.7 runs and Atlanta Braves about 4.7. That points to Atlanta Braves to win. Our safest bet is Phillies +3.5 at -286. Our bold bet is Phillies to win at +172.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BravesPhillies
Games played2020
Wins108
Losses1012
Runs scored8276
Runs conceded8596
Scored per game4.13.8
Conceded per game4.34.8
Home record4W 5L4W 7L
Away record6W 5L4W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Braves spreadCoversFair
Braves -3.528%+262
Braves -2.536%+177
Braves -1.545%+121
Braves -0.555%-121
Braves +0.564%-178
Total runsOverUnder
6.567%33%
7.558%42%
8.549%51%
9.540%60%
10.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Braves +3.5 wins if Braves win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Phillies Clinch Wild Card Berth on Final Day After Treacherous Week

The Philadelphia Phillies beat the Tampa Bay Rays 7-3 on Sunday to secure the final National League wild card spot.

13 hours ago
MLB

Griffin Jax Forced Out of Game After Taking Line Drive to the Back

Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax left Saturday's game against the Phillies after being struck in the lower back by a 104 mph line drive.

27 Sept 2026
MLB

Phillies Icon Bill Giles, Creator of the Phanatic, Dies at 92

Bill Giles, the longtime Phillies executive and owner who helped sign Pete Rose and create the Phillie Phanatic, has died at the age of 92.

26 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves?

Our prediction for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves is Atlanta Braves to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project Philadelphia Phillies 3.7 and Atlanta Braves 4.7. Our best bet is Phillies +3.5 at -286.

What is the projected score for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves?

We project Philadelphia Phillies 3.7 and Atlanta Braves 4.7, about 8.4 runs in total.

How are Atlanta Braves playing?

Atlanta Braves have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 82 runs scored and 85 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Philadelphia Phillies playing?

Philadelphia Phillies have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 76 runs scored and 96 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies last met?

It ended Atlanta Braves 4, Philadelphia Phillies 9. In the last 5 meetings Atlanta Braves won 3 and Philadelphia Phillies won 2.

What is the best bet for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves?

Phillies +3.5 at -286, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Braves against Phillies. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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